Thursday, 24 January 2013

Volatility fails to hold the earlier gains

With the main indexes breaking new highs in the morning, the VIX managed to hold fractional gains. With an index reversal, the VIX built gains of 8%..but they largely evaporated into the close. The VIX closed +1.8% @ 12.69. It remains a fearless equity market.




A disappointing end to the day for those on the bearish side. But then, that has been the case since the big turn on New Years Eve. Every day the algo-bots manage a little ramp, and that always helps to cool the VIX down.

Today's VIX action at least showed a little breakout - if briefly, and indeed,  its not enough. Only with a close in the 14/15s can the bears start to get moderately excited about some kind of retracement in the indexes - perhaps to the sp'1450/40s.

It will be interesting to see where the VIX closes Friday. A close in the 14s would certainly confirm today's earlier (temporary) breakout.

I am long VIX from 12.34 (from last Friday), seeking an exit in the 16-18s, sometime in the next two weeks.

More later, on the indexes