Thursday, 28 June 2012

Mid-term targets - remain on track

It remains bemusing how after two days of minor rally, there are again bulls out there touting new highs. The rise from 1310 to the Wednedsay close of 1332 is irrevelent noise.

To close today, here are two charts, both of which are very clear on the bigger picture, and clarify the targets I continue to be looking for this summer.

Sp, daily9c, bearish outlook

If this is indeed minor wave 3 (blue count) of what can be thought of as 'intermediate 1', then we should NOT break a new high >1363. Indeed, we should fail to close over 1335/40 in the days ahead (see hourly cycles).

A close for the month of June sp<1305 would be VERY much preferred, to instill further confidence in the overall outlook.

VEU, (world indexes, ex-USA) monthly

A rare look at the VEU monthly chart. Note how in the 2008 collapse wave we could never get back above the monthly 10MA. This month, we hit the 10MA...and failed. Interesting huh?

Key levels remain 35.0..and 30 - which equates to probably sp'1100.


There is nothing in either the daily or monthly charts that is yet suggestive of some kind of bullish up trend in the months ahead.

With the FOMC now out of the way until at least August, bears have free reign in July, its time for them to start whacking this market lower...much lower. A break to 1225/00 is much needed by mid July.

I remain holding short overnight, next exit target is 1300/1290, that could still come by the Friday close.

Goodnight from London