Monday 14 May 2012

VIX - Volatility creeping higher..like a scary bug

The VIX closed pretty strongly today in the mid 21s. The door is open to 24, and the weekly cycle is warning of underlying momentum to much higher volatility levels. The near term trend remains up, with the weekly cycle providing strong support during any declines.


VIX, Daily, standard



Vix, weekly


Summary

One big question is whether the VIX can ever break last years peak of 49? We sure have some severely scary possible macro-economic events out there this year. Everything from the USA - (joining Japan and the EU), in recession, to Greece leaving the EU and/or Euro currency.

I've always - and still do, hold to the notion that if VIX breaks 49, we'll see VIX in the mid 60s. Today's close of 21.78 is a very long way from the 60s. That level seems impossible right now, but hey, last July so few were buying VIX calls at VIX'15, it took a mere 3 weeks to triple the VIX to the mid 40s.
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More later..dealing with the daily index cycles (all bearish!)