Monday 14 May 2012

Closing Brief

A very weak close to the day, after the 15min index cycles maxed out at 2pm (as often, it seems to be a key time of the trading day, and that is precisely when I exited Longs earlier).

VIX closed at a new high, the door remains open to 24.


Sp'60min H/S formation



Dow'60min



IWM'60min



VIX'60min


Summary

A weak close, it is very difficult to know if we'll gap lower yet again tomorrow morning. I'd not feel comfortable shorting with the 15/60min cycles as they are, so I'm content to be on the sidelines. Conversely, I'd also not be comfortable holding long overnight - even from these relatively low levels. Too risky.

A lot of indicators in the market - Euro, Dollar, CRB index, Oil, macro-economic doom (Greece Euro exit?), all are bearish. Its almost pitiful, in that the only bullish aspect the bulls have to look forward to is the Facebook IPO - which I now understand will start trading this opex Friday (not Thursday).
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More later, dealing with the daily cycles - which today received some confirmation of the bigger bearish picture.