Opex swings

US equity indexes closed very mixed, sp -1pt at 2767. Nasdaq comp' -0.5%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and -1.2% respectively. VIX settled -0.8% to 19.89. Near term outlook offers a marginally lower low (<sp'2710) next week, before whipsawing back upward into end month.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was a day of swings in equity land, but then it was opex, which inherently leans to chop. The spx saw a morning high of 2797, but then swung lower to an afternoon low of 2760, and settling at 2767.

Volatility briefly broke above the key 20 threshold, but then resumed back into cooling mode, settling in the upper 19s. Regardless of how Monday might open, a marginally lower low (<sp'2710) looks rather probable next week. Whilst that will spook some, it would make for a more natural and solid floor, ahead of the US midterms (Nov'6th).
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Bonus chart: Germany, monthly

With eight trading days left of October, the DAX is currently -5.66% at 11553. There is zero sign of a floor/turn, and this remains a real problem for the equity bulls.
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Night falls in the London metropolis

SpaceX to the moon... and beyond!

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Goodnight from London
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Just another Thursday

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, sp -40pts (1.6%) at 2768. Nasdaq comp' -2.1% at 7485. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -2.6% and -1.9% respectively. VIX settled +15.3% at 20.06. Near term outlook offers chop into opex, but a marginally lower low (<2710) still appears probable early next week.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Thursdays do tend to favour the equity bears (for various reasons), and today's weakness was not exactly a surprise. US equities opened moderately lower, saw an early low of 2788, with an initial rally to 2806. Then comments from Draghi and Mnuchin gave the market the excuse, sending prices spiraling lower into the afternoon.

Volatility was naturally higher, with the VIX settling above the key 20 threshold. S/t outlook offers a marginally lower low (<sp'2710), although considering tomorrow is opex - which leans to chop, that is far more viable next Mon/Tuesday.

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Bonus chart: China, monthly

With a Thursday decline of -2.9%, the Shanghai comp' is net lower for October by a rather severe -11.9%, having broken a new multi-year low of 2485. With soft psy'2500 lost, its mostly a case of 'empty air' to the giant 2K threshold. If that occurs.... implications for most China related stocks, not least BABA, JD, TCEHY, and BIDU.
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Midweek swings

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp -0.7pts at 2809. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.6% and -0.4% respectively. VIX settled -1.2% at 17.40. Near term outlook offers sig' weakness to the sp'2750s, which would likely equate to VIX 22/23s.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little weak, and quickly spiraled down to 2781, before a powerful rebound to 2816. The late afternoon saw a lot of chop, leaning on the weaker side, with the spx settling effectively flat.

Volatility was naturally mixed, opening in the 17s, but then swinging to a high of 19.55, before cooling back, settling fractionally lower in the 17s. The daily candle is a hollow red reversal, which leans s/t bullish.

Thursday will (in theory) lean to sig' equity downside to the sp'2750s, which would likely equate to VIX 22/23s.

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