A mixed end to the week

US equity indexes closed broadly mixed, sp +2pts at 2553. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.0% and -0.2% respectively. VIX settled -3.0% to 9.61. Near term outlook offers increasing threat of a natural cyclical rollover. A gap fill of sp'2474/61 remains a technical necessity.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened fractionally higher, and it was enough to generate a quintet of index historic highs (the R2K was the exception). It was notable that the Transports saw a very significant intraday reversal, closing sig' lower, on what is key rising trend.

With equities breaking new highs, market volatility remains very subdued, with the VIX settling the week in the mid 9s.

Near term outlook is unchanged. The US equity market is due a 3-4% cooling wave, with prime target of sp'2474/61, before swinging back upward to the 2600s. The 2470/60s should equate to VIX in the mid teens. The key 20 threshold looks out of range for the remainder of the year.
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Appropriate skies for October Friday 13th 2017.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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The weekend post will appear Sat'12pm, and will detail the US weekly indexes.

Do you fear Friday the 13th?

It was not exactly the most exciting of days, with the sp'500 seeing a trading range of just 7.02pts. Tomorrow is Friday 13th, and at least some of you will have a case of Triskaidekaphobia. The daily price momentum cycles are increasingly swinging back toward the equity bears, and tomorrow might actually see some significant price action.


sp'weekly1b

WTIC, daily

Summary

sp: As things are, it won't take much of a Friday fall to result in a net weekly decline. For a bearish engulfing candle, bears need <2520, and that looks out of range. Note the lower bollinger, currently at 2389. That could only possibly be seen if there is a North Korean atmospheric nuclear test, which would surely freak out the mainstream.

WTIC: inventory data was somewhat mixed today, and broadly, oil is mostly just churning around the psy' level of $50. What should be clear, the mid term bearish trend has concluded. An eventual run to the 54/55s looks viable before year end.
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Looking ahead

Notable earnings: BAC and WFC.

Friday will see CPI, retail sales, busin' invent', consumer sent'.

There are a quartet of fed officials on the loose, all speaking at some conf' titled 'Are Rules Made to be Broken? Discretion and Monetary Policy'.
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Normal service shall resume tomorrow

For you non subscribers out there, I hope you found today's postings at least marginally interesting, on what was a day of very minor chop.

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Goodnight from London
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The next post on this page will likely appear Friday 6pm EST.

VIX and Index update

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -4pts at 2550. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and -0.1% respectively. VIX settled +0.6% at 9.91. Near term outlook offers basic target of the micro gap of 2540/37 before the weekend. The 2474/61 gap zone remains a technical necessity, before a more viable chance of the 2600s.


sp'daily5

Dow

Trans

Summary

sp: a fractional new historic high of 2555.33, but settling fractionally lower. There are two micro gaps to be filled, but more far more importantly... that of 2474/61. No sustained price action <2460 seems viable for the remainder of the year, as more broadly, the 2600s look a given, as earnings are coming in just fine.

Dow: settling -0.1% at 22841. First support in the 22200s, where the 50dma will soon be lurking. Its arguable that the 22200s would equate to the sp'2474/61 zone.

Trans: a new historic high of 10049. S/t bearish with the main market, but it should be clear, the 11000s are just about viable into year end.
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VIX'daily3

With equities seeing a day of relatively minor chop, the VIX remained broadly subdued, settling +0.6% at 9.91. Near term offers the 11/12s, with sp'2520s. On balance, it would seem sp'2474/61 would equate to VIX in the mid teens, although it will depend on how fast the decline is.
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Looking ahead by 6pm EST