The Dow follows the S&P

US equities closed broadly higher for the eighth day of the past ten, sp +14pts @ 2152 (intra high 2155). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 2.2% and 1.3% respectively. Outlook is bullish (at least) into early September.


Dow, monthly

sp'daily

Summary

So, the Dow has followed the sp'500, with a new historic high of 18371. Next resistance are the 18600/700s.

Any price action in the 19000s would threaten extreme 'irrational exhuberance' of 25/26k, which likely take until spring 2018.

Regardless of what you might think of that, two new historic highs can't be seen as bearish, right?
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An update on China, monthly

A monthly close above the 10MA in the 3100s, should bode for summer/autumnal upside to 4k, with 4400/500s viable by year end. It will be interesting to see if the PBOC decide to loosen monetary policy some more, or perhaps to depreciate their currency ahead of a Trump presidency.

On that thought...........

Goodnight from London
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Video update from Walker



Almost a full hour of chart chatter. As ever, make of that, what you will.

A new historic high

After trading broadly sideways for almost fourteen months, the sp'500 has broken up and away, with a new historic high of 2143. Broader upside to the 2200s looks due by mid/late September, at which point the mainstream will be seeking a year end close in the 2300s.


sp'monthly

Summary

There is little to be said about today, that I didn't already outline this past weekend.

With a very significant new historic high, the outlook is bullish, and any retraces are to be treated as such.

Unless I see price action back under rising trend of 2040 (as at early August), I can't be bearish.

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Three world markets I wanted to update...


UK - FTSE

The hyper-bullish spike floor June candle, is being confirmed with strong July follow through. Next level is 7K. Any monthly close in the 7000s would bode for far higher levels. The issue now is whether Carney of the BoE will follow through on his threat to cut rates and spool up the printers to protect against a BREXIT induced recession.


Germany - DAX

Note the current spiky floor candle. First resistance is the 10K psy' level, and then 10500. Any price action in the 10600s should be enough to offer clarity that the German market is headed for 12-13k by year end. There is the small matter of Deutsche Bank, yet it would seem an EU bank re-capitalisation program via the ECB is a real possibility this Aug/September.


Japan - Nikkei

The Japanese market saw a net Monday gain of 4.0%, as chatter of helicopter money increases. In early August, equity bulls need to see >17K to have confidence a move back above 20k will occur by spring 2017.
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Page updates/forum

I've changed the blog template a little (everyone has a 1900x1080 screen, yes?), updated some graphics, and various outdated links.

Most notable, I've added a forum, which you are welcome to view/join. It will be there for the long term, and will be a good place for those who want to share ideas, especially across the longer term.

see: http://permabeardoomster.com/forum/index.php
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Would you rather me still be bearish?

Unlike many (and I could reel off a long list) of other sites/blogs, yours truly will not pander to those perpetually expecting the imminent end of the world.

Despite my online bearish moniker, I will NOT tout bearish talk for the sake of garnering web traffic. It remains the primary reason why my audience isn't anything remotely close to many other sites.

For those of you interested in as balanced an outlook as is possible in these crazy times, keep on coming back... as I ain't going anywhere.

Goodnight from London

Weekend update - US monthly indexes

US equities have swiftly recovered all of their BREXIT declines, and considering ongoing price action, it would now seem probable that the sp'500 will do what was recently unthinkable, and break 'up and away' within days. The US market remains the world's strongest, and now looks set to lead other markets higher across the rest of the year.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

The Friday close of 2129 was a mere 5pts (0.2%) shy of the May 2015 high. Considering ongoing bullish price action, a break to new historic highs looks probable.

If correct, it will argue for what remains of the 'broadly bearish outlook' to be dropped. First upside will be the 2150/70 zone, where the upper monthly bollinger is lurking. A move into the 2200s looks out of range until late Aug/early Sept.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle remains negative, but looks set to turn positive, with a bullish cross in August. Such a technical event would be highly suggestive that the market is in the early phase of another multi-month/year wave higher.


Nasdaq comp'

The Nasdaq is making a clear play for the giant psy' level of 5K. Any daily closes >5K, will bode for a continued run to challenge the July 2015 high of 5231. Any monthly close in the 5300s would give clarity of much higher levels into the 6000s by spring 2017.


Dow

The mighty Dow managed a weekly close back above core resistance of the 18K threshold. The Dow is currently net higher for a sixth consecutive month, the best run since mid 2013. Underlying MACD is very close to turning net positive. A break above the May 2015 high of 18351 will offer 18700/800s by late Aug/early Sept. Even the most bullish outlook would struggle to see 20k by year end.


NYSE comp'

The master index is currently net higher for a fifth consecutive month, with a notable weekly close in the 10500s. Next resistance is 11k, which is a clear 4% higher... equiv' to sp'2190/2210.


R2K

The second market leader - R2K, is holding above the key 10MA, and looks set for an attempt to break back into the 1200s. However, this is still a long way (around 8%) below the June 2015 high of 1296, and will likely take at least 3 months.


Trans

The 'old leader' - Trans, remains the weakest US index, currently in the 7600s, a considerable way below first resistance of 8K. The Nov' 2014 high of 9310 is a very significant 21% higher, and looks out of range until around the start of 2017.
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Summary

All US indexes continue to battle broadly upward from their Jan/Feb' lows.

The sp'500 is leading the way, followed by the Dow and Nasdaq.

Even if the 'headline indexes' break new historic highs in July/August, it will take the 'two leaders - Trans/R2K, a good 3-6 months to break similar new highs.


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Looking ahead

M -
T - Wholesale trade
W - import/export prices, EIA report, Fed Beige Book
T - weekly jobs, PPI
F -  CPI, retail sales, empire state, indust' prod', bus' invent', consumer sent'  *OPEX*

*there are an absolute truck load of appearances from Fed officials. 
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Trying to keep an open mind

The Friday close of sp'2129 is clearly not a new historic high, but current price momentum sure does suggest a straight forward gap higher next Monday >2134. We could certainly fail from current levels, but after the past few days, its looking unlikely.

Despite the name, I can trade on the long side. If sp>2134, that will rule out any shorts for some months, and I'll merely seek to trade some quality stocks.

Q2 earnings season begins next Monday with Alcoa (AA), and there should be some interesting trading opportunities across the next few weeks.


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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will appear Monday @ 7pm EST
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***I am updating the page template and other things this weekend.