and the winner is...

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +27pts @ 2113. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.9% and 2.0% respectively. VIX cooled by a very significant -18.5% @ 17.25. Near term outlook is 100% uncertain... and will be entirely dependent upon the outcome of the UK vote.


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Summary

A pretty strange, but not entirely surprising day in market land.

US/world capital markets are almost entirely of the belief that a 'remain' vote will be tonights outcome. Indeed, the market - having rallied from 2050 to 2113 (3.1%) has arguably priced in the good outcome.

Were the UK populace to have voted to leave... then the world financial markets have a serious mis-pricing issue to deal with overnight.. and into the weekend.

re: VIX. on any basis, volatility is now back to overly low levels, not least as besides the UK vote, there are numerous other issues.
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As for the winner

As of writing, the polls are still open (yeah, I draft my posts hours in advance), and I've absolutely no idea how the UK populace will have voted.

Many in the mainstream believe that remain will win... others... hold the view that the leave camp are much stronger than generally thought.

Times up

All I know is that at 10pm tonight.. as 'big ben' sounds in the Elizabeth tower - besides the Houses of Parliament... it'll be a chilling sound. One way or another, tonight's vote has massive implications for the UK... and the broader EU.

If I had to guess, I'd say 'remain' will win... and as I said yesterday, I kinda came to like Root beer.

Goodnight from London
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*I'm not sure if I'll update/add to this post overnight. In any case... feel free to say hello via Disqus/email, and I'll be lurking at my other usual online 'haunts' too.

Just like the European Union

US equity indexes closed moderately weak, sp -3pts @ 2085 (intra high 2099). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.6% and -0.4% respectively. VIX settled higher by a rather powerful 14.6% @ 21.17. Near term outlook is for moderate weak chop ahead of the Friday vote outcome.


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Summary

A day of moderate swings in the equity market, with the sp'500 remaining unable to break and hold above the 2100 threshold.

VIX was especially notable, as despite equities only settling a little lower, the VIX built rather powerful gains into the close... decisively back above the key 20 threshold. The bigger weekly cycle is offering the 28-32 zone on a 'leave' vote.


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Awaiting the vote count

I would hope some of you will see the relevance of the following...





I've only ever lived in the EU... so I can't say from personal experience if what lays outside is really any better. From what I see though, South America is a perpetually failing hive of corruption and semi-communism. The great continent of Africa remains a mess, still reeling from the effects of numerous empires that rampaged, ransacked, and tried to convert hundreds of different groups. Asia looks a somewhat interesting place to be... even in the unsustainable economic bubble that is communist China. 

I have always thought, and called myself a European. Most of the time, that merely resulted in me being seen as even more of an oddity by those around me. Hell, I even supported the notion of a single currency.. although (hopefully most of you realise).. for many reasons, the Eurozone (as it currently operates) is mathematically doomed.

I sure can't say who will 'win' the vote tomorrow. What I can say... I did kinda get to like Root beer.

Goodnight from London

Is a remain vote priced in?

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +5pts @ 2088. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled lower by -0.3%. VIX settled +0.6% @ 18.48. Near term outlook offers a push to the gap zone of 2109/15. Clearly, what happens on Friday/Monday, will be greatly dependent upon the voting maniacs in the UK.


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Summary

A second consecutive net daily gain, the best run in a few weeks.

It is VERY notable that the daily bollinger bands are becoming super tight.. currently 2121-2063.

A big move is coming, as many others have noted in the past few weeks.

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The bigger weekly cycle...  sp'weekly1b

It remains the case that underlying price momentum continues to swing back toward the equity bears. In theory, unless there is a dramatic move to new historic highs (>2134) in the near term, the market is headed strongly lower, with first target of the lower bollinger band - currently @ 1916.. and rising.
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Is a 'remain' outcome priced in?

I do keep an eye on the cheerleaders of clown finance TV, and as I didn't have them on mute this lunch time, I did notice Josh Brown suggest that a 'remain' vote has arguably been priced into the market. Mr B added that the market wouldn't see a '500pt Dow' move on a 'remain' outcome.

Its an interesting consideration. Certainly, most could agree the market is NOT pricing in a 'leave' vote, as we trade a mere 2% from historic highs.

Might we see the market roll lower on a remain vote? After all.. there is a laundry list of economic reasons why the market will be vulnerable this summer and into the autumn. Technically speaking, the market is vulnerable until it breaks an actual new historic high.. having been stuck for over a year.

Frankly, I will be glad for the market to move onto other issues... once the UK vote count has been announced.

Goodnight from London