VIX continues to melt lower

WIth equities closing broadly higher for a third day, the VIX continued to melt lower (intra low 13.55), settling -6.4% @ 13.63, the lowest close since Apr'27th. Near term outlook is borderline, as equity price action remains bullish in the near term, and that threatens VIX 12s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

As equities have rallied from sp'2039 to 2084, the VIX has been ground down from the 16s to the 13s.

Considering a great many aspects of uncertainty, front month.. and 2nd/3rd month volatility remain at bizarrely low levels.

VIX should be sustainably above the key 20 threshold by end month, but for the moment.. its firmly stuck in the mid/low teens.

--
more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed broadly higher for a third consecutive day, sp +25pts @ 2084. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.2% and 0.9% respectively. Near term outlook is extremely borderline, but clearly.. leaning bullish, as the 2100 threshold is within striking distance.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: a new intra high, and absolutely ZERO sign of a ceiling/turn.

Upper hourly bollinger will be 2090/92 at the Wed' open, with the key 2100 threshold easily within range.
--


So, a third day higher, and the Friday low of 2039 is now a clear 2% lower.

That sure doesn't exclude the possibility we still close net lower on the week, but it will be damn difficult. Where will the catalyst come from to kick the market significantly back lower?

Cyclically, we're due a down cycle tomorrow.. and one that should stretch into Thursday.

However, until we're back under the price cluster zone of 2050.. and more so.. the Friday low of 2039, equity bears should be seriously spooked right now.

I sure am.

--
Awaiting earnings from Disney (DIS)....

4.16pm...  $1.36    vs. 1.40 exp
  Rev. 12.97  vs 13.19 exp.

So.. its a marginal miss... but Mr Market is provisionally annoyed.. with DIS -6% in the $99s.... and that takes out a fair few aspects of support.

--
more later... on the VIX

3pm update - a musically hellish closing hour

US equities are set for a third consecutive net daily gain, with the sp' due to settle within the 2085/75 zone... along with VIX 13s. USD is set for a sixth daily gain, +0.1% in the DXY 94.20s. Metals have built moderate gains, Gold +$6, with Silver +1.1%. Oil is really helping the market mood, +2.9% in the $44s.


sp'daily5

UUP daily

Summary

Well... 2081... the gap zone is fully filled, as Mr Market is either teasing the equity bulls (how many times is that since May 2015?)... or the bears are only just starting to feel the real pain.

For those short on margin... or time/stat' decay via options/leverage... it feels like the worse day in some months.

--
notable strength: DIS, +0.9% in the $106s... with earnings due at the close.
-


Meanwhile... for those utterly bored, or who just want a glimpse of the dying EU, you'll find no better example than.......




Ahh.. so it won't play via embedded video, instead....... just hit the YT link if you want to see some real horror.

--
back at the close