Having climbed from the 13s to the 17s, the VIX saw a broad day of cooling, settling -6.5% @ 14.68. Near term outlook offers the 18/19s - if sp'2040/30s. Sustained action above the key 20 threshold still looks extremely difficult in the current cycle.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Suffice to add... a day when the VIX was ground lower across the day, as equities clawed higher into the sp'2080s.
Despite the Monday cooling, VIX will have ample opportunity to spike much higher later this week.. with the 18/19s well within range.
However.. it remains the case, that sustained action above the key 20 threshold looks out of range until the latter half of May.
US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +16pts @ 2081. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.7% and 0.9% respectively. Near term outlook offers renewed downside to the 2040s. A daily close in the 2030/20s will be really difficult, along with a VIX above the key 20 threshold.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: So much for cooling into the close, as the market made a new intra high of 2083.
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Overall though, a pretty quiet start to the week, despite all sorts of negative news out there.
Clearly, it remains the case that the rebounds are very strong, and regularly recover most of the declines. As noted last week, until I see a daily close in the sp'2020s, I won't have any real confidence that 2111 is a key mid term high. After today's gain, attaining a daily close in the 2020s looks damn difficult this week.
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Perhaps one of the finest endings to almost any film of the last decade...
".. the truth is........ I am Iron Man". Stark, T. (2008).
.. and that made for far better viewing in the closing hour, than the cheerleaders on clown finance TV.
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Meanwhile... the technology for the Green Goblin is almost complete...
US equity indexes are holding broad gains, with the sp'500 breaking a new intra high of 2079. The smaller 5/15/60min cycles are all on the high side, and offer initial some cooling into the close. USD continues to weaken, -0.5% in the DXY 92.60s. Oil remains weak, -2.5% in the $44s.
sp'60min
USO'daily2
Summary
Well, a broadly bullish day to start the month... but things sure could be different in another 21 trading days.
notable weakness... miners, GDX, daily
.. but its also notable that GDX broke a new cycle high this morning.
