With equities seeing a second day of broad declines, the VIX continued to climb, settling +3.1% @ 15.70. Across the week, the VIX gained a rather significant 18.8%. Near term outlook offers the sp'2040/30s.. which should equate to VIX 18s.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
VIX'weekly
Summary
So, we've seen the VIX swing from a Thursday low of 13.30 to a Friday afternoon high of 17.09 (with sp'2052). The closing action was one of rapid cooling in the VIX - as equities jumped around 0.7%.
Broadly though, the VIX is on the rise. It would seem the 18s are due next week... the 19-21 zone looks 'briefly' possible if sp'2030/20s.
Sustained action above the key 20 threshold looks out of range in the current cycle, until the latter half of May.
US equity indexes ended the week/month on a broadly weak note, sp -10pts @ 2065 (intra low 2052). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.2% and -0.8% respectively. Near term outlook offers the sp'2030/20s, which will likely equate to VIX in the 18/19s.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: a rather strong ramp from 2054 to 2069, with some pretty choppy action into the monthly close.
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... and another week in the world's most twisted casino comes to a close.
Certainly... the bulls tried damn hard to break/hold the sp'2100 threshold.. but failed. With that failure saw increasing weakness.
The weekly/monthly close in the 2060s is interesting, but those equity bears are going to need to see some daily closes in the 2020s and lower to offer initial hope that 2111 is a key mid term high.
One thing is for sure... May won't be dull.
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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening.. to wrap up the week
Regardless of the exact close, all US equity indexes are set for significant net weekly declines. Despite some trend/support breaks, what will be critical for the equity bears, is for the market to put in a marginally lower high (<sp'2111) in the subsequent multi-day bounce - as looks set to begin at some point next week.
sp'weekly1b
Nasdaq comp' weekly
Summary
*keep in mind, for a net monthly decline, we need sp <2059.74
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Suffice to add... an interesting week, but really... the moves are still relatively minor, and we remain very close to recent multi-month highs.
I will only have renewed confidence that we've seen a mid term high @ sp'2111, if we see a daily close in the 2020s next week. That will not be easy, as there are a great many aspects of support in the 2040/30s.
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More April showers... so I guess I should expect rainbows (and unicorns?) into the close.
yours... ending the month on a positive note :)
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RE: TVIX.. for those curious... I'm seeking 4.75/5.25 next week...
Will hold across the weekend
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3.03pm.. for those in the mood for something different...
The communists protestors are out in force, as Trump is due to speak.
