VIX climbs into the close

It was a very mixed day for the VIX, which saw an opening reversal/black-fail candle, with the VIX then rapidly cooling to a low of 13.30. However, with significant equity weakness into the close, the VIX rebounded, settling +10.5% @ 15.22. Near term outlook offers the sp'2060s, which will likely equate to VIX 16s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

For those involved in the VIX, today was a real damn mess. Not only did the VIX see a classic opening reversal - as reflected in the equity market, but the VIX almost broke into the 12s !

As things are, the equity bulls look tired, and were clearly unwilling to buy into the sp'2100s, with the VIX strongly rebounding as equities rapidly cooled into the close.

What should remain clear, sustained action above the key VIX 20 threshold looks out of range until the latter half of May.

--
more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed on a particularly negative note, sp -19pts @ 2075 (intra high 2099). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.5% and -1.2% respectively. Near term outlook offers the 2060s, a break under the two soft lows of 2039/33 will very difficult.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: increasing significant weakness... breaking a new intra low of 2071 - 28pts (1.4% from the lunch time high).

Notably holding the rising trend/support from the 2033/39 lows.
--


Well, that was one hell of a twisted day.. and without question it remains a NASTY market.

The gap zone of sp'2065/61 looks a viable target into the weekly/monthly close. Yet.. that will be small consolation to the equity bears after recent price action.

Have a good evening.. especially to those watching 'the big short'.
-

*awaiting earnings from AMZN...
-

4.13pm.. AMZN earnings much better than the market expected... with the stock +11% in the $670s.

Ironically.. its notable that even with EPS of just over $1 for Q1..  if you x4.. then gives $4 a year, making a PE of around 150/160.

What a bargain huh?

--
more later... on the VIX

3pm update - moody sky to end the day

US equities are increasingly weak, as the bull maniacs have been unable to re-take the sp'2100 threshold. Price structure remains a clear bear flag, with natural downside to the sp'2060s - which would likely equate to VIX in the 16s. Meanwhile... the comedy resumes in AAPL as Icahn has made a run for the exit door.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

So... we're clearly leaning on the weaker side into the close.... but that doesn't really negate this morning's utterly lame reversal.

Frankly, even if we settle the week/month in the sp'2060s tomorrow, it should not particularly please the bears. I can't be remotely confident again until I see a daily close in the 2020s.

-
notable weakness... AAPL, daily

Icahn proudly announces on clown finance TV that he has entirely exited his AAPL position. For around 2 years, Icahn has touted AAPL well into the $200s.

*the bigger monthly cycle is offering $70... if the main market does rollover into the summer.
--

Here in London city...

Moody skies... favouring the bears.



3.12pm.. Equity bear flag... confirmed... with the VIX backing it up.

So... 2060s by end Friday... probably.
-


3.18pm... re: AMZN, earnings due at the close...   daily

Best guess.. downside to the $540s....   price structure could be argued is a giant H/S.... which would suggest $300... and yes.. I realise the latter would be seen as beyond 'crazy talk'.

yours bearish retailers with fractional/zero profit margins.
-


3.25pm.. the recent low of 2077... clearly broken... with VIX 15s.

The cheerleaders on clown finance TV are trying not to appear too spooked right now.. as AMZN earnings are due.

notable weakness... AAPL -3.5% in the $94s.... things only get interesting with sub 90.


3.28pm.. market finding a touch of support on the trend from 2039/33... .at 2072....

Equity bears REALLY need to push for <2072.....


3.35pm.. Well.. this is one way to end the day I guess....  VIX +11% in the mid 15s.

More important.. the fact we've seen a FULL reversal of the morning reversal... that IS bearish for tomorrow.. and arguably into next week. 
--

3.42pm.. so far.. rising trend from 2039/33 is holding.... which is somewhat annoying... but less annoying than a close in the 2100s

VIX +9% in the 15s.... somewhat better than 13.30.