Volatility cools across the week

With US equity indexes breaking new multi-month highs, it was a week where the VIX broadly declined, concluding with a net Friday decline of -0.7% to 13.62, that resulted in a net weekly decline of -11.3%. Near term outlook offers the 15/16s, with the 17/18s looking difficult next week.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*a fourth consecutive net daily decline for the VIX, swinging from a Tuesday high of 16.57 to a Thursday low of 13.38.
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US/world capital markets are now pretty damn confident, not least with the renewed notion of a 'Yellen put'.

A break above the key VIX 20 threshold looks out of range next week, and the 30s now look unlikely until mid May at the earliest.

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*I remain long VIX from the 14.40s.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -2pts @ 2080. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and +0.2% respectively. Near term outlook offers 2065/61 gap zone on Monday. Equity bears should be battling for a break of soft rising trend.. which by the Wed' close will be around 2057.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action:  micro chop, leaning a touch on the downside.. unable to clear the hourly 10MA.
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.. and another week in the world's most twisted casino comes to an end.

Unquestionably, with new multi-month highs of sp'2087 and Dow 17962, the equity bulls have a lot to be rather pleased about.

However... the bulls have been battling to break new highs for almost an entire year. If they can't keep pushing upward.. they are facing an epic fail.

The interesting (and scary) issue is how would the Fed - and other central banks, react to renewed equity downside?

At what level of the sp'500 would the Fed start issuing threats of QE4 or lowering rates to zero (or NIRP) ?
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In any case....

...have a good weekend everyone
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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening to wrap up the week

3pm update - net weekly gains

Regardless of any further cooling into the close, all US equity indexes are set for significant net weekly gains. Most notable, the sp'500 broke a new multi-month high of 2087, with Dow 17962.. a mere 15pts shy of the rather critical Nov' high.


sp'weekly1b

Dow, daily

Summary

There is a lot more to say... but I'll save it for after the close.
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Thank the gods... we're almost done with this week.