VIX continues to cool

With US equities breaking another new cycle high of sp'2046, the VIX was naturally continuing to melt lower (intra low 13.82), settling -3.7% @ 14.44.  Near term outlook threatens the sp'2050/55 zone, which will likely equate to VIX in the 13s again.. before next opportunity of a sustained push toward the key 20 threshold by end month.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to add, the VIX is back to levels last seen in early November 2015.. when the sp'500 was in the 2110s.

On any basis, the VIX is now on the extremely low end of the cycle, and there is increasing threat of a new up wave to the key 20 threshold before end month.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed broadly higher for a second consecutive day, sp +13pts @ 2040. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 3.0% and 1.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers the R2K at the 1100 threshold, which will likely equate to sp'2050 before next chance of a reversal.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: micro chop, with just a touch of weakness into the close, but absolutely nothing to give clarity of a key mid term top.
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So.. a post FOMC gain, with a new cycle high of sp'2046.

Higher oil prices is a primary driver, and Oil itself it being helped via a weaker USD.
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Just reflect on the fact that we're back within 5% of the historic high of May 2015.

Now its a pure case of whether you think...

1. Market pushes to new historic highs into the summer.
2. Doesn't break a new high.. but stays within the 2100/1800s.
3. Maxes out in the near term, and rolls lower... eventually breaking <1810.

Its one of the three.
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Thanks for the messages/emails... makes the day far more interesting!

Have a good evening.
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*more later... on the VIX

3pm update - holding gains into the close

US equity indexes are set to hold gains into the close, with the sp'500 seemingly set for next soft resistance of 2050/55, where the daily upper bollinger is lurking. VIX remains under broad downward pressure, -4% in the low 14s. Metals have notably reversed, Gold -$2.


sp'daily5

VIX'60min

Summary

*Oil is +3.8%.. and that is what is arguably the primary driver of the ongoing nonsense.
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The price in the Dow and sp'500 have been decisively filled.

I realise some are now getting more broadly bullish, even talk of new historic highs.. but unless we see a move much above the late Dec' high of 2081.. I can't see it happening.

Yours truly is now focused on the R2K, seeking a hit of the 1100 threshold, before a viable reversal.
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notable strength.. BA, daily

With big stocks like BA continuing to push.. its hard to argue we won't see further upside.. to at least R2K 1100.
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3.33pm.. R2K surges more to.. 1093... almost at the big 1100 threshold... which now seems due early tomorrow.