VIX resumes cooling

Whilst US equity indexes closed moderately higher, the VIX was unable to hold early morning gains (intra high 19.10), settling -1.8% @ 18.34. Outlook into next week offers the sp'2020/40 zone, and that should equate to VIX 15/14s...before a key floor is put in.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to add... VIX did break to the 19s this morning, but cyclically looks tired, and highly vulnerable to cooling to the mid teens by next week's FOMC.

Sustained action above the key 20 threshold looks out of range until late next week. The 30s.. perhaps by end March.

Hyper upside to the 40/50s are clearly out of range until mid April/May.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +10pts @ 1989 (intra high 1992). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers a 'Draghi inspired' break above last Friday's high of sp'2009.. with a test of the 200dma (currently 2021) early next week.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: increasingly nano-scale chop.... tedious... and NOT bearish.
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I've marginally re-drawn the bull flag, but whatever you want to call it, price action/structure does not favour the bears tomorrow.

There will be high threat of another 2-3 day climb... to the 200dma in the 2018/20 zone by late Friday/early Monday.

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**CEO of Square/Twitter set to appear on clown finance TV at 4.30pm. Dorsey remains a rather strange character..  whilst TWTR itself just appears to becoming myspace v2.0.
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more later.... on the VIX

3pm update - minor gains ahead of the ECB

US equity indexes are set to close a little higher, ahead of the next ECB meeting.. where NIRP will likely be intensified, along with a possible increase/extension of the ongoing venture in paper printing. As things are, the setup still favours the equity bulls into next week.


sp'daily5

Summary

Regardless of the exact close, what should be clear, yesterday saw broad weakness.. and we sure didn't see any downside follow through today.

I suppose some could still look for weakness tomorrow on 'Draghi disappoints', but the setup argues against it.

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notable strength.. miners, GDX, daily2

Gold remains -$8, but the miners have swung from declines of -3% to currently +1%. However.. we do have a lower low.. and a lower high. Broadly, metals/miners look vulnerable into the FOMC.
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back at the close