Friday, 11 December 2015

VIX soars into the weekend

With equities closing significantly lower, the VIX soared into the weekend, settling +26.1% @ 24.39 (intra high 25.27). Near term outlook offers a little further higher, but post-FOMC, the VIX looks set to get ground to the low teens by year end. Across the week, the VIX gained a rather extreme 64.7%.


VIX'60min



VIX'daily3



VIX'weekly



Summary

Suffice to add.. the weekly close above the key 20 threshold is a surprise.

It would seem the market is seeing a rather powerful washout ahead of the FOMC, and which should counter rally after rates are raised.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed very significantly lower, sp -39pts @ 2012 (intra low 2008). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.9% and -2.2% respectively. Equities look set to rebound after the FOMC is out of the way.


sp'60min



Summary

... and another wacky week in the world's most twisted casino comes to an end.

With oil losing around 10% to the $35s... and increasing concern about liquidity in the credit/junk bond markets, it sure was a moody end to the week.

Considering today's action, a washout of the sp'2K stops would be very natural next Mon/Tuesday.. before pushing higher.
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Clown finance TV reporting on bond man Gundlach...


No doubt, he won't be the only financial name across the next few days who will be trying to convince the Fed to back off again.

I hold to the view though, that if the Fed back off, the market will get hugely upset (if not initially) at continued uncertainty in early 2016, and unravel...breaking the Aug' low of sp'1860.

If there is one thing the market can't stand.. its uncertainty.
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Downside to the sp'1500s?

It has been kinda interesting today to see a few of the more bullish cheerleaders/analysts on clown finance TV effectively talking about downside under the Aug' low. The sp'1500s would be the most natural target in any collapse wave next year... but there is ZERO doubt.. were that to happen.. the Fed would launch QE4.... and we know where prices would trade then... right?
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It was nice to hear from some of you this week...

Have a good weekend everyone.
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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening to wrap up the day.

3pm update - severe net weekly declines

Regardless of the exact close, all US indexes are set for rather severe net weekly declines of 3-5%. The VIX is fully reflecting the increasing anxiety ahead of next Wednesday's FOMC, +22% in the 23s. Might the fed aim for a compromise, with a 10/15bps increase, rather than a 'monstrous' 25bps?


sp'weekly1b



Summary

... am getting a little tired.... thank the gods.. its almost the weekend.
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notable weakness...

miners, FCX


If things do get nasty in 2016.. FCX would be one of the names on the 'might disappear' list. I'd imagine Mr Icahn would fiercely disagree though.
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3.20pm.. new intra low.. sp'2011.... as there is simply no real support until the psy' level of 2K.. and then price cluster zone of the 1990s.

VIX +27% in the 24s...  with the 2x TVIX/UVXY net higher on the week by around 50%.


3.24pm.. sp'2009.... ugly.... net weekly decline of 82pts (3.9%).. so far.


3.46pm.. VIX +28% in the 24.90s...  which is the kinda zone we'd expect with sp'2K.  So.. if 1990.. 27/28.. max.
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back at the close..................