VIX claws higher into end month

With equities settling moderately lower, the VIX clawed higher into the monthly close, settling +3.1% @ 15.07. Across the week, the VIX settled +4.2%. Perhaps most notable, for the month of October, the VIX settled net lower by -38.5%.


VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

VIX'monthly

Summary

*A rare look at the monthly cycle, but it does merit highlighting, as we've now seen the VIX collapse from 53.29 (Aug 24th) to 12.80 (Oct 28th).

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Suffice to add, the VIX is due an up cycle... and the Fed day spike low of 12.80 will likely not be hit again until December.

At best, an equity retrace to sp'2020/00.. and that might equate to VIX 'briefly' in the low 20s..
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities ended the month moderately lower, sp -10pts @ 2079 (intra high 2094). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.1% and -0.3% respectively. Near term outlook is for a natural retrace to the sp'2020/00 zone.. where there are multiple aspects of support. From there... broadly higher into year end.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing action.. new intraday lows.. as the sellers finally appeared....breaking the Thursday low.
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.. and October comes to a close. Essentially, all indexes proceeded straight up.. resulting in rather extreme net monthly gains.

Best guess remains.. a moderate retrace to around sp'2020/00 zone.. by mid November. Broadly.. the bigger bearish scenario is off the table.

Have a good weekend.
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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening to wrap up the day, week... and month.

3pm update - closing hour spooky weakness

US equities see an outright collapse wave from the new cycle high of sp'2094 to a near horrific low of 2084. Seriously though, a break under 2082 in the closing hour would be a minor victory to the bears.. and offer hope that the market has indeed maxed out.. with a natural retrace set to span 2-3 weeks.


sp'60min

sp'weekly1b

Summary

... the last trading hour.. of what has been an absolutely insanely bullish month.

So.. lets see if we can take out the Thursday low of 2082.. with a weekly close in the 2070s. That'd be something.

Regardless of the exact close.. we're still set for a fifth consecutive net weekly gain.
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notable weakness: DIS, -0.9%...

..updates into the close...  if we do break <2082.
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3.03pm.. ohh the humanity... look at the declines!    We've taken out the Thursday low!

Next soft target.. 2080... then the 200dma of 2061.
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3.09pm.. the 3 leader stocks, AAPL, DIS, INTC... relentlessly strong.. are all appearing to rollover...

notable weakness, BAC -1.7%...


3.17pm.. VIX +2.5% .. making a play for a minor net weekly gain in the 15s.


3.38pm... chop chop.. with sp'2084.. and VIX 14.95....

Just a touch of weakness into the monthly close... looks due.