VIX cools a little

With equity indexes closing moderately mixed, the VIX cooled a little, settling -2.9% @ 26.83 (intra high 28.20). Near term outlook offers further equity downside to sp'1820, and that would likely equate to VIX in the 33/35 zone.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Not much to note.

The daily closing candle was a reversal doji candle. First upside target is the 29/30 zone.. that looks probable on any initial break of sp'1867.

If sp'1830/20... then VIX will be in the mid 30s.
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*I am long VIX from 26.98.. seeking an exit in the 30s
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities settled moderately mixed, but well below their morning highs, sp +2pts @ 1884 (intra range 1899/1871). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and -0.6% respectively. Near term outlook is for further downside to at least sp'1820.


sp'15min

sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: broadly weak.. with a rather 'dumb ramp' into the close. Overall.. nothing for equity bears to concerned about.
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To those concerned the sp'500 will manage to hold the Aug'24/25th low of 1867... I merely refer you to the R2K chart (see 8pm post).

The R2K has already broken well below the Aug' low of 1100.. and it is headed for the Oct' 2014 low of 1040.. equating to sp'1820.
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So... early gains.. a lot of chop.. but distinct weakness into the close. Frankly.. bulls should be very concerned about the threat of a giant Wed' lower.. under sp'1867.

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*I hold short AAPL, DIS, GE, DAL, and long VIX. Seeking a first exit in the sp'1825/20 zone.
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more later on the VIX

3pm update - positioned for day 10

Regardless of the exact close, there remains a distinct underlying downward pressure in the US equity market. Further, there is clearly no sign of any panic.. and we're 4% (at minimum) from any kind of market capitulation. There remains a significant threat that sp'1820 will not hold this Thursday.


sp'daily5d

sp'15min

Summary

*I am short DIS, AAPL, GE, DAL, and long-VIX.  Will hold overnight
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Price structure on the small 15min cycle is a bearish pennant

So.. lets see how we close...  frankly anything in the 1870s would be a bonus.

*Today was day'9... in theory.. days 10 and 11 should see rather powerful net daily declines.
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3.10pm... New intra low .. sp'1875 .. with VIX 27.50s.

For those holding short overnight.. this is a good lead into tomorrow morning.


3.24pm.. sp' 1874... VIX 27.80s.. its all rather good :)


3.38pm.. a bounce from 1872 to 1880....    bears covering.. .it can't possibly be buyers at this level/time.

Regardless... rally FAILED... the setup into tomorrow remains bearish.

notable weakness: AAPL -3.5% in the $108s.