Tuesday 29 September 2015

3pm update - positioned for day 10

Regardless of the exact close, there remains a distinct underlying downward pressure in the US equity market. Further, there is clearly no sign of any panic.. and we're 4% (at minimum) from any kind of market capitulation. There remains a significant threat that sp'1820 will not hold this Thursday.


sp'daily5d



sp'15min



Summary

*I am short DIS, AAPL, GE, DAL, and long-VIX.  Will hold overnight
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Price structure on the small 15min cycle is a bearish pennant

So.. lets see how we close...  frankly anything in the 1870s would be a bonus.

*Today was day'9... in theory.. days 10 and 11 should see rather powerful net daily declines.
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3.10pm... New intra low .. sp'1875 .. with VIX 27.50s.

For those holding short overnight.. this is a good lead into tomorrow morning.


3.24pm.. sp' 1874... VIX 27.80s.. its all rather good :)


3.38pm.. a bounce from 1872 to 1880....    bears covering.. .it can't possibly be buyers at this level/time.

Regardless... rally FAILED... the setup into tomorrow remains bearish.

notable weakness: AAPL -3.5% in the $108s.