VIX climbs into the weekend

With equities settling significantly lower, the VIX was naturally back on the rise, settling +5.4% @ 22.28 (intra high 23.99). Near term outlook is increasingly bearish for equities, with renewed explosive upside due in the VIX to the 30s.. if not 40s in October.


VIXdaily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*the VIX saw a second consecutive net weekly decline of -4.0%.. with another lower high.. and lower low.
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So... has the VIX floored at 17.87 - with sp'2020 this past Thursday?

Considering the daily/hourly cycles - with key breaks of rising trend/support on some indexes.. the answer is probably yes.

Renewed explosive upside into the VIX 30s.. and almost equally likely.. the 40s looks due into October.

*I will look to pick up a VIX-long position next week.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities ended the week on a very negative note, sp -32pts @ 1958 (intra low 1953). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by a significant -2.2% and -1.5% respectively. Near term outlook is increasingly bearish, as key rising support has been broken on a number of indexes.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour: with a few billion of selling vol'... a rather stinky closing hour.. and a clear break of rising trend.
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... and another week in the crazy casino comes to a close

With some rather sustained trading in the sp'1950s today, it looks like we probably have an FOMC spike high of 2020.

Any further action >sp'2000 looks unlikely next week.

There will no doubt be intraday bounces next Monday... but with things as they are... they are arguably to be shorted.

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yours truly has been in 'trading light mode... on the long side' for the last four weeks, but I will look to launch a major market short next week.

Have a good weekend
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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening to wrap up the week

3pm update - borderline

US equities are set for significant net daily declines, and now it appears to be a case of whether the 'rats jump ship' into the weekly close.. or instead some kind of short-stop cascade back into the 1970s. Regardless of the exact close.. its been a rather wild week.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*I'm tired....  thank the gods.. its almost the weekend
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So... this market continues to struggle. There are sporadic little waves higher.. but we're still seeing equal down waves.

Best guess:  renewed upside... but if we see sustained action in the 1950s next Monday, it will arguably rule out new highs next week.
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back at the close... unless something dramatic happens
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3.36pm... well.. it ain't pretty... as things are... fractional net weekly declines...  and 2020 again looks like a top from the 1867 low.

VIX +10% in the 23s... a close in the 24s would bode well for the equity bears for Monday