Friday, 21 August 2015

VIX explodes into the high 20s

With equities seeing increasingly severe weakness for the second consecutive day, the VIX continued to soar, settling higher by an extreme 46.4% @ 28.03 (intra high 28.38). Near term outlook offers an equity bounce to the sp'2040/50s, and that should equate to VIX back in the teens.


VIX'60min



VIX'daily3



VIX'weekly2



Summary

*an extreme net weekly gain of 118.5%... simply incredible.
--

Suffice to say... a VIX that has doubled this week. In fact.. the VIX doubled from the Wed' afternoon low of 13.73 - when sp' was spiking to 2096.

On any equity bounce next week, first target will be the initial gap zone of 22/19. The mid teens look possible if sp' can break to at least the 2040/50s.
-

more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed severely lower for the second consecutive day, sp -64pts @ 1970. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -2.7% and -1.3% respectively. Near term outlook is for a bounce to the 2070/80s.. before renewed, and increasingly severe downside into September.


sp'60min


Summary

*closing hour.. further market horror... with wave after wave of selling... as no one wants to buy ahead of the weekend.

As Cashin on CNBC noted, how China trades overnight Sunday will be key. If the PBOC don't act... and the Shanghai comp' loses 3500s.... a Monday bloodbath will be due.
--

... and the wildest week since August 2011 comes to a close.

Frankly, as of Wed' afternoon, around 2.30pm.. when we were trading at sp'2096, I was still hopeful of the sp'2050/40s - with VIX 18s, by the Friday close, but certainly.. to see the sp'500 lose the 2000 threshold - with VIX 24s, today was simply incredible to see.

With huge technical breaks on the giant monthly cycles... the equity bears are now in control on the US market.

All bounces are to be treated as such, and I will look to be all out short on any such bounce next week.

Have a good weekend everyone
--

*the usual bits and pieces across the evening to wrap up the week :)

3pm update - incredibly wild week

Regardless of the exact close, it has been a wild week, with the most dynamic three day swing since 2011, from sp'2096 to 1986, with VIX exploding from 13.73 to 24.92. Most important of all though, are the critical technical breaks on the bigger weekly/monthly cycles, along with the underlying core trend from the March 2009 low.


sp'60min



sp'weekly8



Summary

I'm tired.. and I'm starting to slow down.

I can only add... I hope I've added something useful this week...

Along with many others, I think it is now a case of waiting for a bounce to play out next week, and then bears can confidently launch an all out short against the market.

Oh wait.. I'm sounding like one of those 'malicious short sellers'.

Is that a Chinese SWAT team at my door?
--

updates into the close.......................


3.10pm..  sp -50pts @ 1985... VIX 25s....    wild day!


3.29pm... sp -55pts @ 1980..  VIX 26s...... the horror.... !

*for those reading around... Armstrong was just noting a viable Dow 15500 in the near term.... which is an interesting thought,  see: http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36274

Something to think about.
-


3.36pm.. wave after wave of selling on my screen.... amazing to see...  sp' -59pts @ 2076.