VIX building a floor

Having been briefly knocked to 11.85 at the FOMC announcement, the VIX spent Thursday in floor building mode, settling -2.2% @ 12.22 (intra low 12.09). Near term outlook offers renewed equity downside, which should equate to a VIX weekly close in the 13/14s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to add, market is back in complacency mode.. but broadly... I remain expecting much higher volatility levels as we proceed into August.. and all the way into early October.

*I hold long-VIX from the low 14s.. seeking my next exit in the 16/17s.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp +0.1pts @ 2108. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and +0.2% respectively. Near term outlook is offering renewed side, but the equity bears really need some sustained price action under sp'2090 to offer clarity that the Wed' high of 2110 was just another marginally lower high.


sp'60min

Summary

Not the most exciting of days... indeed, with the morning spike from 2094, it was a pretty frustrating day for those in bear land.

Yet.. from a pure cyclical perspective, the setup does favour the bears into the weekly/monthly close.

I would be surprised if we don't see a monthly close <sp'2100.. along with VIX 14s.

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*I hold long-VIX, and short-INTC overnight.
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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - continued chop

US indexes look set to close moderately mixed, with the sp' having bounced from a Monday low of 2063 to 2110. Equity bears need a daily close in the 2080s - along with VIX 14s to offer clarity that this recent move was just another bounce.


sp'daily5

VIX'60min2

Summary

A daily close <sp'2100 looks difficult, but regardless of the exact close... market looks tired.. and set for some weakness into the weekend/monthly close.

notable weakness, miners, FCX -4.8%,    GDX -3.6.. as Gold -$9... falling into month end.. as is typical.

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*I will hold long-VIX, and short-INTC overnight..
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A reasonable day in the city...

Not exactly warm though.. just 60f.
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updates into the close..