VIX hugely lower on the week

With equities seeing very sig' net weekly gains, the VIX was ground lower across the week, settling Friday -1.3% @ 11.95. Across the week, the VIX fell -29.0%. Near term outlook offers a bounce to the upper gap zone of 15/16s.. before resuming to the 12/11s in early August.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

More than anything, the weekly VIX cycle was warning of trouble in the previous two weeks, with clear spiky top candles around the key 20 threshold. The fact last week saw a black-fail candle only added to my concern that the VIX had maxed out.

Regardless of any bounce to the VIX 15/16s next week, the VIX looks set to be broadly subdued into August.

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*I remain holding a small VIX long position, seeking an exit in the 15/16s by next Tue/Wed.
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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed somewhat mixed, sp +2pts @ 2126 (intra high 2128). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.7% and -0.4% respectively. Near term outlook offers a retrace to the sp'2090/80 zone - along with VIX 15/16s, before renewed upside into August.


sp'60min

Summary

... and another week comes to a close in the twisted casino.

We've climbed from sp'2044 to 2128 in just six trading days, with the VIX getting crushed from 20.05 to 11.77. A retrace is arguably due across next Mon-Tue.

Have a good weekend
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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening to wrap up the day.

3pm update - chop into the weekend

US equities are set for some OPEX chop (if a touch weak) into the weekend, but regardless of the exact close, all US indexes will settle with significant net weekly gains. With the USD +0.2% in the DXY 97.80s, the metals remain under pressure, Gold -$12, with Silver -0.8%.


sp'weekly

VIX'60min

Summary

With no catalyst to knock the market lower, we've seen a clear bounce from rising trend.

For the equity bears... a week to forget.

I'm still guessing we'll see a few days lower, before resuming higher into August.

**The bigger bearish equity/long VIX trade is likely not until we're in the second half of August.
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notable weakness, energy stocks, CHK -5.2%, BTU -3.5%, RIG -5.5%
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Unless there is some closing hour news....   back at the close
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Just noticed this...

Trans, daily

A bit of a bearish spike.. at declining resistance... does bode in favour to the bears next Mon-Wed.