VIX cools a little

With equity indexes settling the month on a moderately positive note, the VIX cooled a little, settling -3.1% @ 18.26 (intra low 17.49), although with a notable new cycle high of 19.80. Near term outlook is uncertain, with threat of 16.00/15.50s.. before a break into the low 20s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to add... a bit of a consolidation day for the VIX, with a notable new cycle high.

A break (if briefly) into the low 20s still looks due... not least if the market wants to properly test the 200dma.. which will be around 2054 Wed/Thursday.
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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +5pts @ 2063 (intra high 2074). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.1% and 0.6% respectively. Near term outlook is uncertain, with hourly cycles threatening further upside, against broader downside.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour was a bit of a mess... but then there was some end month issues.
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... and another crazy month comes to an end...

Broadly... all the main US indexes saw net monthly declines.

The issue now is whether we'll see one further wave higher across July/early August.. and then some kind of brief.. but severe washout in Sept/Oct.

*I remain on the sidelines overnight.. seeking an index short... once the hourly VIX cycle is better reset... preferably VIX 16/15.50 zone.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - weakness into the monthly close

US equity indexes will be extremely prone to renewed weakness in the closing hour.. as the Greeks will fail to pay, making it the first developed nation to ever default with the IMF. USD is holding gains of 0.7% in the DXY 95.40s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$7


sp'15min

VIX'60min

Summary

Effectively.. target was reached on a secondary bullish wave into the 2pm hour as expected.

What I find a problem is the hourly VIX cycle... which is more suggestive that a market short from the 16/15.50 zone is viable tomorrow... or even Thursday (monthly jobs data).

For now... I'm sitting back. Call it overly cautious, but I just ain't in the mood to get nailed on further upside tomorrow.
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updates into the close....


3.11pm... a little weakness to sp'2064....  VIX is holding up though...

I'd still expect some of the rats to sell into the close.. ahead of the Greek default this night.


3.15pm.. sp'2063...  its not looking so pretty...  the real issue is whether 2050 fails tomorrow... then we might actually see some mild panic.


3.29pm.. sp'2062.... the rats are getting twitchy.... ahead of the overnight default.

Naturally.. yours truly is not short.... but at least I'm not long. oh well. 


3.46pm.. sp'2065.... its getting increasingly choppy.

*I remain on the sidelines... yours... Mr Cautious.

... back at the close