Thursday, 11 June 2015

VIX continues to melt lower

With equities continuing to battle upward, the VIX was naturally still in melt mode, settling -3.3% @ 12.78. Near term outlook is for further equity upside into next week's FOMC.. which should equate to VIX holding within the 14/11 zone. The big 20 threshold looks out of range until the latter half of July


VIX'60min



VIX'daily3


Summary

*the third consecutive net daily decline in the VIX
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VIX remains very subdued, as the US market remains supremely fearless.. despite Greece and seemingly looming rate rises in Q3/Q4.

The big VIX 20 threshold looks completely out of range until late July, barring a Greek default end June/early July.

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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed broadly higher, sp +3pts @ 2108 (intra high 2115). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.1% and 0.1% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued upside into the FOMC of June 17th. The bigger weekly/monthly cycles are both offering the 2150s before end month.


sp'60min


Summary

*a touch of weakness in the late afternoon, but really, its nothing for the equity bears to get excited about.
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A pretty quiet day in market land.

It looks like the equity bears won't even be able to manage a retrace to the sp'2100 threshold, before 2120/30s by middle of next week.

The only issue is whether market can cope with the Yellen next week.. and just keep clawing higher, to tag the upper bollinger on the weekly and/or monthly cycle.

In either case... seems zero point being short the market in the immediate term.

Have a good evening
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4.12pm...  TWTR  CEO has quit....  stock snapping higher... on the 'good news'


Despite the initial ramp... the big $50 level... is a very long way up.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - moderate net daily gains

US equity indexes are set to close moderately higher, with the sp +6pts @ 2111. The Transports is showing some sig' strength, +1.0%. USD remains in bounce mode, +0.4% @ DXY 94.90s. Metals have recovered from the morning declines, Gold -$4, with Silver +0.3%


sp'60min



Trans, daily



Summary

Little to add.. on what was a pretty quiet day.

Equity bulls look set for net weekly gains.. as the bears look to be completely absent until after next Wednesday's FOMC.

notable weakness, coal miners, BTU -12.3%... in the lowly $2.80s.
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back at the close.