VIX unable to hold opening gains

With equities opening lower to sp'2085, the VIX maxed out at 15.13. With a (not surprising) latter day recovery, the VIX rapidly cooled, settling +0.6% @ 13.94. Near term outlook offers continued equity upside, with the sp' in the 2130/40s by end month. The VIX looks set to remain subdued for another few weeks.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

*The opening hourly candle - with a clear spike, was a very clear warning to the equity bears they should have been closing out at the open.
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The big VIX 20 threshold looks out of range for at least another two weeks.

However... (and it is an increasingly valid doomer scenario)...

VIX weekly

Weekly MACD (blue bar histogram) is set to get a bullish cross in 2-3 weeks, and would bode (if briefly) for VIX in the low 20s.

Equity bulls should be somewhat cautious in late May/early June... not least if the market gets stuck in the sp'2140s.. where weekly upper bollinger resistance is.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately weak, sp -6pts @ 2099 (intra low 2085). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.2% and -0.2% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed upside, with the sp'2120/30s by end week. There looks to be viable upside into the 2160/70 zone by the FOMC of June 17th.


sp'60min

Summary

*a touch of weakness into the close, but still...the bulls managed to claw the market way above the morning lows.
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Certainly, not a dull day.

Opening declines to sp'2085... but they sure didn't hold for long, with clear reversals... as especially seen via TLT and the VIX.

Overall, it would seem the market still has a high likelihood of breaking new historic highs (at least in some indexes).
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*I hold short Gold - via GLD, overnight.
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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - battling for a positive close

US equities are battling for net daily gains (sp>2105) which would be a full 1% swing from the opening low of 2085. VIX is naturally cooling, and has already turned fractionally negative into the 13.80s. Metals are holding borderline sig' gains, Gold +$10, with Silver 1.7%. Oil is back to +2.1%


sp'daily5

Summary

Well, the opening hourly candles for VIX and TLT were a pretty clear signal to the equity bears to close out this early morning.

I realise some are still seeking another wave lower to 2050/40s.. but that simply does not look likely.
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*I will hold short Gold overnight.. my entry is only a touch under the current level... so I can live with that!

60min

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back at the close