VIX holds up

Whilst US equities closed with moderate gains, the VIX held up relatively well, settling -0.4% @ 15.09 (intra low 14.81). There is viable renewed equity downside, which will offer VIX 17/18s... by the Friday close. The big 20 threshold remains a tough level to break/hold.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

All things considered, the fact the VIX held up so well (relatively) was one of the most notable aspects of today.

Equity bulls should be at least 'mildly' concerned with this discrepancy.
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Primary downside target for the equity bears should be the sp'2040/30 zone.. where the 200dma will be lurking next week. That is 'best case' though... and if Friday closes in the 2100s.. bears should probably scrub any hope of that.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +7pts @ 2088 (intra low 2074). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.1% and 0.5% respectively. Near term outlook is very mixed, and will be dependent upon how the monthly jobs data is interpreted. Best guess... another rollover... before further upside.


sp'60min

Summary

... a bit of a mixed day of moderate upside.

The open was a bit of a mess... with a minor washout to 2074.. before battling slowly higher into the afternoon.

Market will be highly vulnerable to a snap lower tomorrow... the key level for the bears to break under will be sp'2067.
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The smaller 5/15min cycles are offering a bull flag for tomorrow morning.. so there is a sig' threat for anyone holding short overnight.. but what else is new.. right?

*I am content to be on the sidelines overnight.. having dropped GLD-short this morning.
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more later, on the VIX

3pm update - maxed out... probably

US equity indexes appear to have maxed out at sp'2092. A touch of weakness into the close looks likely, with a viable snap lower on the monthly jobs data. With the USD +0.6%, the metals are under pressure, Gold -$8. Oil continues to weaken, -2.8%.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

... updates into the close...
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*I have eyes on FXI... but remain a little concerned about an overnight gain.. which would not be the best thing to wake up to tomorrow morning.

In any case.. the Shanghai comp' looks set for 4K.... which is another 2.5% lower.
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notable weakness: DISCA -2.4%.... bigger daily/monthly charts look bearish.
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3.15pm... Market remains stuck... as everyone is wondering not just what the data will be tomorrow morning, but far more difficult to fathom.... how will the market interpret it...

Ohh.. and by the way...

Does anyone know how to place a trade?
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3.32pm... Market chop.. .sp'2087... a touch weaker...

Watching FXI... its been flat lining across the day... as things are, I'm not in the mood to hold short overnight.. not least with the hourly cycle threatening one or two up days.. before renewed downside.

Will reassess tomorrow...
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Overall though.. lots of bear flags all over the place.. including Gold...      I just hope to ride the wave lower when it breaks <$1130. In theory.. it should happen within the next few weeks.
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3.46pm.. VIX turns positive.... with sp'2086..... first hint of tomorrow?

Oil -3.0%... not helping energy stocks!  SDRL -6.6%
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... well, micro 5/15min cycles are offering a bull flag....  but I ain't buying it.

back at the close.