VIX battles upward

With equities slowly unravelling across the day, the VIX built sig' gains, settling higher by 11.4% @ 14.31. Near term outlook offers further equity weakness into the Friday jobs data, before the broader trend is likely to reassert itself.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

A second consecutive net daily gain for the VIX, although of course, the 14s remains a bizarrely low VIX.

There are a great many aspects of resistance in the mid teens, and even if sp'500 slips into the low 2070s.. it will be difficult just to see VIX 17/18s.

The big 20 threshold looks out of range in the current up cycle.

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Special note on the bigger weekly cycle...

Underlying MACD cycle is starting to tick higher, and at the current rate will turn positive in 2-3 weeks. For the equity bears... this is something to keep in mind for the latter half of May.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed significantly weak, sp -25pts @ 2089. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.6% and -1.4% respectively. With the loss of the 50dma, next soft support is the recent low of 2077. Core support is the 200dma of 2027/28.. and then the giant 2K threshold.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour tried to bounce... but failed.
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A pretty interesting day in market land.

The mainstream is claiming that the market sold lower on the intl. trade data (since when did anyone care about that?) - which saw a wider than expected deficit of $51bn... but really, I think that is just a case of mis-attribution.

We're clearly approaching the micro gap zone.. but further weakness tomorrow, and into the Friday morning jobs data looks probable.

A bigger move <2072 in the near term looks really difficult to achieve.
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more later.. on the VIX

3pm update - weakness into the close

US equities continue to slowly, but consistently unravel, with the sp' lower by a significant -25pts, at 2088. A daily close in the 2090/85 zone - where there are a number of aspects of support, seems probable. Metals are holding moderate gains, Gold +$4. Oil is set to close higher by a sig' 2.5%


sp'60min

Summary

.. pretty interesting day, finally the bears look set to achieve some sig' net daily declines.

I'm a little surprised we already reached the 2090/85 zone.. which seemed more likely tomorrow than today.

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*I continue to watch the Gold... but will hold off for today... another gap higher looks viable tomorrow.

15min

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updates into the close. esp' if we fall <2085.
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3.35pm... Hmm, sp' 2092... a minor up wave... but it'd seem another wave lower is due in the closing 5-10 minutes.

notable weakness: DISCA -1.6%... after good earnings... but market still not happy as there are 'strong dollar' issues with this intl. company.