Tuesday, 5 May 2015

VIX battles upward

With equities slowly unravelling across the day, the VIX built sig' gains, settling higher by 11.4% @ 14.31. Near term outlook offers further equity weakness into the Friday jobs data, before the broader trend is likely to reassert itself.


VIX'60min



VIX'daily3


Summary

A second consecutive net daily gain for the VIX, although of course, the 14s remains a bizarrely low VIX.

There are a great many aspects of resistance in the mid teens, and even if sp'500 slips into the low 2070s.. it will be difficult just to see VIX 17/18s.

The big 20 threshold looks out of range in the current up cycle.

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Special note on the bigger weekly cycle...


Underlying MACD cycle is starting to tick higher, and at the current rate will turn positive in 2-3 weeks. For the equity bears... this is something to keep in mind for the latter half of May.
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more later... on the indexes