VIX climbs into the weekend

With equities utterly failing to see upside follow through, the VIX battled higher (if moderately), settling +3.8% @ 16.00. Near term outlook is mixed, with threat of the sp'2070s, before a likely down wave to the sp'2010/00 zone.. where the 200dma is lurking.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*across the week, the VIX gained a moderate 5.3%.
--

Suffice to say...  despite some major down days across the last few weeks, VIX remains relatively subdued. The big 20 threshold looks out of range in the immediate term.

However, if sp' loses the sp'2039 low (after a probable rally to the 2070s), the VIX will likely break into the 20/25 zone.

Weekly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle has a potential bullish cross by the end of next week, and if so.. that would offer 25/30 in the last week of March.

--
more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately lower, sp -12pts @ 2053 (intra low 2041). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.7% and -0.4% respectively. Near term outlook is very mixed, with threat of a move to the sp'2070s, but regardless.. renewed downside to sp'2010/00 zone looks probable.


sp'60min

Summary

*a short-stop cascade into the close.. which will no doubt have annoyed many of the bears.
--

Well, its been a really interesting week... some major swings.... certainly much busier

Get some rest... because next week is set to be pretty wild!

Have a good weekend
--

A full set of updates across the evening..... to wrap up the week

3pm update - a week for the bears

US equities remain significantly weak, with the threat of a key break of the sp'2039 low.. along with a weekly VIX close in the 17s. However, regardless of the close... it has been another week for bears, with a third consecutive net weekly decline for the sp'500.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*it is kinda surprising to note that we are set for a third net weekly decline. The weekly candles are HIGHLY suggestive that sp'2000 will be hit.. whether from a straight move.. or via a bounce into the 2070s.
--

So... Oil settles the week in the $44s.... dire. The $43 low is not going to hold.. is it?

In which case... energy stocks are going to get trashed... and that will take down the rest of the market with it.
-

The really interesting aspect to all this... the March monthly close could be truly stinky... which will open the door to much more 'interesting things'.


3.30pm... Market attempting a late day mini ramp.. .but it won't be able to stop a net weekly decline.

Any move to 2070 looks like the easiest re-short level for some considerable time.


3.42pm.... short-stop cascade.. with sp'2052... 

Price action though does not support the broader bullish case next week.. from a purely technical perspective..the damage has been done.

back at the close!