VIX soars into the close

With US equities unravelling in the late afternoon, the VIX soared from the low 17s.. to above the key 20 threshold, settling +18.7% @ 20.44. Near term outlook offers a chance of continued equity weakness to the 200dma in the low sp'1970s.. which would likely equate to VIX in the 22/24 zone.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX, weekly

Summary

*it is notable that the bigger VIX weekly cycle, upper bol' will be offering 23s this Thurs/Friday.
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The market sure did unravel in the late afternoon, and the daily close in the 20s was certainly a surprise. The notion of 14/13s by the Friday close is now extremely unlikely.

Indeed, equity bears should be pushing for continued downside to the 200dma of the sp'1970s into the weekend... its certainly viable.. so long as the usual 'dip buyers' remain unwilling to jump aboard ahead of a spring rally.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed significantly lower, sp -27pts @ 2002 (intra low 2001). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.4% and -1.6% respectively. Equity bears have had to battle hard to get close to the 2K threshold. Near term outlook offers a hit of the 200dma in the sp'2070s


sp'60min

Summary

*the closing hour sure was a stinky one for the equity bull maniacs (yours truly included).
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So... a new cycle low of sp'2001, and no doubt many are going to remain gunning for the 1970s - where the 200dma is lurking, in the coming days.

I'm pretty surprised at the post FOMC weakness.. it has been a fair while since we've seen that kind of price action.
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UPDATE 4.04pm..

FB earnings.... better than expected.. stock swinging a fair bit... +2%... having been -4% (mere seconds)
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more later.. on the VIX

3pm update - resolutely bullish

US equities have marginally taken out the morning floor (although not on all indexes).. with sp'2017 and VIX 18.85. Hourly cycles remain on the low/exhausted side, and there remains high risk of a Thursday snap higher. Metals remain weak, Gold -$9, whilst Oil has broken a new cycle low of $44.08, now -3.1%


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

*I'm pretty adverse to labelling/counting any of today's nonsense, not least since it is a fed day, which are notoriously unreliable.
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So much for the 2019 low holding... oh well.

In any case, price action is still far stronger than yesterday, and as a few recognise, there remains the relentless threat of new highs in the very near term.
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yours... resolutely bullish. (you can call it whatever you want, but I can't short this madness, with the monthly cycles still pushing upward).

updates into the close..........


3.20pm.. new cycle low 2014.. .approaching (arguably) support around 2012/10.

Certainly... no sign of buyers yet... Hmmm...   VIX 19s.... a daily close in the 20s would be a real surprise.


3.36pm.. sp'2008... VIX +14% @ 19.65.... hmm....   things are getting more interesting.  Even AAPL is cooling, now +6% in the $115s

FB +0.9%... ahead of earnings.. due at the close... will be one to watch... with implications for TWTR (-3.9%)


3.41pm.. Rats getting washed out now... sp'2005... VIX 20s

Momo stocks and energy... really having major problems this afternoon.   FCX -5% in the low $17s.


3.48pm.. A pretty NASTY hourly candle.... sp'2001... the giant 2k threshold in imminent danger....

To those who were short (for whatever reason)... congrats...  I sure read this one wrong.

... back at the close.. to wrap up the day.