A hugely important weekly VIX close

Regardless of the strong swings across the week, the VIX broadly climbed, hitting a new cycle high of 22.06, and settling the week +11.5% @ 20.92.This was the first weekly close above the 200 MA since late 2011.


VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*net weekly gains of a rather extreme 43.8%
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Without question, the VIX achieved THREE key things today...

1. A break above the 20 threshold
2. A break above the high from 2013 (21.90s).
3. A weekly close above the weekly 200MA (>17.40s)

It is the third issue that in my view is absolutely major. A number of other chartists/market watchers have also mentioned the importance of the VIX weekly 200 MA.. and we now have a clear signal.


Outlook?

I'm still looking for sp'1904 to be tested early next week, although the VIX probably won't break this mornings high.

VIX to drop across the next few weeks, as equities rally to 1970/90 zone, then the VIX to go nuclear, no later than early November.
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more later.. .on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities ended the week having broken a new cycle low, settling -22pts @ 1906. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -2.0% and -1.3% respectively. Near term outlook is still offering a test of the sp'1904 low.. before a significant bounce.


sp'60min

Summary

..and another bizarre week in market land comes to a close.

The week opened moderately higher at sp'1977.... but with a new low of sp'1906.. along with VIX 22s, the bears can get rather confident of how the rest of the year will proceed.

...for now.. that will suffice.

The usual updates to wrap up the week... across the evening.
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Have a good weekend everyone

3pm update - another week for the bears

US equities look set to close the week on a weak note, but regardless of the exact close, it has been a week for the bears. Most indexes will see net weekly declines of 2-3%, with the Trans 'old leader' lower by a very powerful -5.5%.


sp'weekly

Trans, weekly

Summary

*I see little point in getting lost in the minor noise for the closing hour.... the weekly charts are all that is necessary.

Big declines for ALL indexes.. with VERY significant technical damage all over the place... as confirmed by a VIX that broke to levels not seen since 2012.
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I've not said it yet.... but I will likely make a bold call later this evening...  but more on that... later!


3.08pm.. Rats getting twitchy again... sp'1916.... new lows... viable.

3.25pm.... bull maniacs getting rattled, especially in the tech, Nasdaq -78pts @ 4290s

With VIX in the 20s... this is a CRITICALLY major success for the equity bears.


3.34pm... Fun end to the week huh?

Look at those bull maniacs bail..... ironically, selling a mere 0.5% above what will likely be a key floor anyway.... haha.


3.49pm... see them jump ship..... hahahaha... right at the lows.... this is VERY entertaining end to the week.

VIX +10% in the 20.70s..... a clear 3pts above the level I was seeking (17.40s).. for a critically important signal.

Well done bears!


3.51pm... great end to the week.. seeing the bulls get washed away.

3.55pm.. sp'1907... 3pts to go..... we might even break a little under... not that its important. Weekly charts offer HUGE support around 1900.

back at the close!