A hugely important weekly VIX close

Regardless of the strong swings across the week, the VIX broadly climbed, hitting a new cycle high of 22.06, and settling the week +11.5% @ 20.92.This was the first weekly close above the 200 MA since late 2011.


VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*net weekly gains of a rather extreme 43.8%
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Without question, the VIX achieved THREE key things today...

1. A break above the 20 threshold
2. A break above the high from 2013 (21.90s).
3. A weekly close above the weekly 200MA (>17.40s)

It is the third issue that in my view is absolutely major. A number of other chartists/market watchers have also mentioned the importance of the VIX weekly 200 MA.. and we now have a clear signal.


Outlook?

I'm still looking for sp'1904 to be tested early next week, although the VIX probably won't break this mornings high.

VIX to drop across the next few weeks, as equities rally to 1970/90 zone, then the VIX to go nuclear, no later than early November.
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more later.. .on the indexes