Volatility climbs for a second day

With equities seeing minor weak chop across the day, the VIX managed a minor gain for the second consecutive day, settling +2.6% @ 12.09. Near term outlook is for VIX to remain within the 13/10 zone. The 20s look highly unlikely until at least October.


VIX'daily3

Summary

It is notable that the broad down trend from the 17.50s was today broken. However, we're still a good 2-3 days away from a bullish MACD cross..and that would likely require sp'500 to remain under the big 2000 threshold.

The equity monthly cycles have powerful net monthly gains, and it bodes for further upside into September. If that is the case, then VIX will remain very subdued for at least some weeks to come.

Right now, it is arguable that VIX won't break into the 20s, even if the market slipped to test the recent low of sp'1904, and that sure doesn't look feasible until at least October.
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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed a touch weak, sp -3pts @ 1996. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.3% and -0.6% respectively. Near term outlook offers a chance at a further wave lower to 1985/80, but the primary trend remains very... very strong.


sp'60min

Summary

Little to add, on what was a very... very quiet day.
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*I hold long overnight, via  SDRL.. which managed a moderate gain.
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more later.. on the VIX

3pm update - micro churn into the close

Equities continue to trade within a very tight range, with the sp'500 set to close in the upper 1990s. No doubt some will be getting overly excited that the market failed to close in the 2000s.... the reality is that it is of no consequence. Primary trend remains the same.


sp'daily5

Summary

Little to add...on what was just another day closer to the long weekend.
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 Notable gains, CHK +2.3% in the $27s... 30/32 seems viable in this new up wave.
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3.21pm... minor chop continues.

*SDRL +1.1% in the low $37s... which I will hold overnight..and probably across the first half of next week.
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back at the close.