Volatility climbs for a second day

With equities seeing minor weak chop across the day, the VIX managed a minor gain for the second consecutive day, settling +2.6% @ 12.09. Near term outlook is for VIX to remain within the 13/10 zone. The 20s look highly unlikely until at least October.


VIX'daily3

Summary

It is notable that the broad down trend from the 17.50s was today broken. However, we're still a good 2-3 days away from a bullish MACD cross..and that would likely require sp'500 to remain under the big 2000 threshold.

The equity monthly cycles have powerful net monthly gains, and it bodes for further upside into September. If that is the case, then VIX will remain very subdued for at least some weeks to come.

Right now, it is arguable that VIX won't break into the 20s, even if the market slipped to test the recent low of sp'1904, and that sure doesn't look feasible until at least October.
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more later.. on the indexes