The VIX divergence

Whilst equities broke a new cycle low of sp'1911, the VIX notably failed to break last Friday's high of the 17.50s, settling -2.9% @ 16.37. Near term outlook is for VIX to melt lower, at least to the 13/12s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Last week I mentioned that one aspect I was particularly seeking - in terms of helping confirm an equity low, was a divergence between equities and the VIX.

I was looking for a marginally lower high on the VIX, whilst equities broke another new low.

This morning saw that event.. and with the reversal, I've some confidence in the near term outlook. Equity bulls just need to see sp'1930s and R2K 1140s, and the market will be on the way to at least test the old broken support in the low 1960s.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities opened moderately lower (intra low sp'1911), but settled u/c @ 1920. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.6% and +0.3% respectively. First target are the low 1960s, which seems viable early next week.


sp'60min

Summary

So.. was sp'1911 a key multi-week floor, completing the wave from 1991 ?

I believe so. Certainly, there is some provisional support via the VIX, and arguably also the R2K.

*I'm long from sp'1912 this morning, and looking for my next exit in the 1960s, which does seem very viable in the first half of next week.
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more later... on the VIX.

3pm update - upside into the close

US equities look set to rally into the close, with moderate net daily gains. Sp'1911 is very likely a key floor.. first upside target is the old support - now resistance, in the low 1960s. Metals are holding gains, Gold +$20.


sp'15min

Summary

A somewhat tiresome day..not least with the morning site issues...

Overall though.. I'm content with my sp'500 long from 1912... an exit in the low 1960s would be great early next week.
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3.08pm... Bulls just need 1925 to break trend...

3.21pm... market is trundling...but 1926/30 zone still looks likely at the close, and that will break the down trend (at least the one I'm following).

3.47pm... market stuck...and will close under trend resistance. Oh well, it'll give everyone a lot to think about overnight.

back at the close.