Monday, 9 June 2014

Volatility moderately higher

Despite equities breaking new historic highs, the VIX was positive across the day, settling +3.9% @ 11.15. Near term outlook is for VIX to remain within the 13/10 zone, and the 9s look very possible if sp'1970/80s into July.


VIX'daily3


Summary

Suffice to say, VIX spikes continue to get lower and lower.

There is moderate chance of mid teens next week, at the FOMC.
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*I have ZERO interest in picking up a VIX call block until at least mid July.
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more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed with moderate gains, after breaking new historic highs earlier in the day. The sp'500 settled +1pt @ 1951 (intra high: 1955). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, closed higher by 0.1% and 0.9% respectively. Near term outlook remains broadly bullish into the next FOMC of June'18.


sp'60min


Summary

Another day of algo-bot melt to the upside. The fact we saw a micro afternoon rollover is very much inconsequential.

The broader trend remains strongly bullish, although I am dubious that sp'2000 can be hit this month - the weekly/daily charts would argue it is a somewhat out of range.
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more later..on the VIX

3pm update - minor weakness into the close

US indexes look set to end the day on a moderately weak note, although well within the broader up trend. A daily close in the low sp'1940s is arguably the best the bears can hope for.. ahead of a sig' QE-pomo tomorrow. Metals are fractionally higher, Gold +$1


sp'60min


Summary

*well, I'm done with sanding/painting the walls, time to see how we close!
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The hourly cycles have proved their worth today, and we have a clear rollover from the earlier high of sp'1955.

I would guess we level out early tomorrow morning, in the 1940/35 zone..where there is plenty of obvious support.

It does look like we'll battle into the 1960s later this week...which is incredible on any basis
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yours.. awaiting a thunderstorm (a welcome import from France)
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3.27pm... so much for the weakness..maniacs buying again... sp'1952... and that is why I have no interest in trying to trade these small down waves.. too annoying to bother with.

In more good news for the US consumer, Oil, +1.6%, thats bullish, yes?


3.37pm...another nano wave lower.... I guess some of the day-trader chartist might call a C' into early Tuedsay...1940/35...at best.

Regardless, I'm content to be away from this.