Volatility fails to hold the gains

It was a day of swings for the VIX as well as equities. With a late morning sell down to sp'1816, the VIX spiked to an intraday peak of 17.50, but with a latter day equity recovery, the VIX naturally slipped back, settling -3.1% @ 15.61. Near term outlook offers minor chop to the low VIX 15s by late Thursday.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

The bigger daily charts are presenting the third consecutive spiky candle. This is most certainly not inspiring for the equity bears, but then, we're still holding the mid teens - a level that is significantly above the trading zone of the past few months.

VIX will probably see minor chop for the remainder of this shortened week (Friday is closed), and a weekly close in the 15/16s looks likely.

So long as the sp' remains under the 50 day MA, I'd expect a further VIX surge next week. Considering we've reached the upper VIX 17s with sp'1814, if sp'1770/60s, then VIX should be trading in the low 20s..at least 'briefly'.
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more later...on the indexes

Closing Brief

US indexes saw some pretty dynamic intraday swings, an opening rally to sp'1843, a late morning sell down to 1816, before a rather typical latter day recovery, sp' settling +12pts @ 1842. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.8% and 0.4% respectively.


sp'60min

Summary

*minor closing hour chop, after what was a day of swings, which will no doubt have confused the mainstream sheep.
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So...we closed just a touch below the morning of 1844, and for many...today will have been real annoying.
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*I failed to re-short in the morning - computer problems, and am somewhat resigned to sitting it out until early next week, but thats okay.

more later..on the VIX

3pm update - swings across the day

US equities are comfortably above the short term floor of sp'1814, and with Yellen due to speak tomorrow, there is the likelihood of another foray into the 1840s. However, downside pressure is very strong, and a break above the 50day MA looks very unlikely.


sp'60min

Summary

Well, an interesting day of swings all over the place.

Best guess remains, we hold under the 50 day MA (certainly for any daily close), and see renewed downside next week, after the 3 day Easter weekend.


3.11pm..as expected..we're seeing some minor chop....a daily close in the 1830s..with VIX a touch lower.

Metals and miners set to close significantly lower, more on those after the close..on my other pages!


Meanwhile..in Disneyland....

TWTR....

The lunacy ....continues! No doubt, a lot of the longer term TWTR shorts..are covering, with a clear break back above the daily 10MA.


3.32pm.. Mr Market spooking the weaker bears out of their positions.

Barring a daily close >50 day MA....this REMAINS a bear flag.


3.50pm... well. sp'1842...and we're set to close just a little below the big 50 day MA.  VIX -2%...set to melt into late Thursday...probably.