Volatility drops for a second week

With equities seeing some significant follow through from the post QE-taper decision, the VIX saw a further very significant drop, declining by -9.6% across the week. VIX looks set to end 2013 in the 12/11 zone.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

More than anything, it is most notable that the VIX high for 2013 was a mere 21..whilst the 2012 high was 27.

It remains an Incredibly confident market, one which has little concern of the Fed easing off the paper printing peddle.
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The only issue is when the VIX will break back into the 20s. When the market breaks lower in mid/late January, it will be fascinating to see if Mr Market gets spooked, or whether it will be just a series of small volatility gains into the upper teens.

As it is, I have no plan to go long volatility until the late spring at the earliest.
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more later...on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes saw minor chop into the weekend, sp -0.6pts @ 1841. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower, -0.2% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook remains broadly bullish, with a viable year end close in the sp'1850/60s.


sp'60min

Summary

Well, it was a short trading week, but the bulls got the follow through they should have been seeking. With the break into the sp'1840s, and Dow 16500s, the primary trend remains very strong. For those bears seeking a 5-7% correction...the wait may only be another 2-3 weeks.

Have a good weekend everyone!

The usual bits and pieces across the evening.
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*the weekend post will be on the US weekly indexes

3pm update - net weekly gains

The smaller 5/15/60min index cycles are offering opportunity for a little jump higher into the close. Regardless though, equity indexes look set to close the week with net gains of around 1.5%. Equity bulls remain in full control. Momo stocks remain weak/cooling down.


Dow, weekly

Summary

Without getting overly focused on the smaller cycles, there is reasonable chance of closing the week on a high.
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*notable strength in the coal miners: BTU, ANR, JRCC

BTU, daily

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updates into the close

3.07pm.. TWTR -9.3%.. the momo chasers getting nailed into the close...such a shame,

As ever, look for the VIX to get whacked lower in the closing minutes..happens more often than not.


3.18pm. TWTR -10.3% @ $65.75...there should be support in the 62/60 zone next Monday morning, before the madness starts climbing again.
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3.43pm.. TWTR -12.0%....rats really getting the kick now!

Main market looks fine though, Dow/Sp' both set to close fractionally higher.