Volatility a little higher

With equity indexes slipping for the third day in a row (ohh...the humanity), the VIX still struggled to stay green, closing just +2.0% @ 12.98, having peaked in the morning @ 13.91. The VIX looks set for higher levels in the days ahead, but the upper teens look way out of range.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Once again the VIX tells the story of the underlying strength..and lack of fear in this market.

Frankly, the mainstream simply aren't taking the current declines seriously, and I have to note, I kinda understand that sentiment. The sp' is a mere 1.2% below its recent high, and the bears need to keep the current three day wave lower in perspective.

VIX 14/15 certainly looks viable within the next few days, perhaps as early as late Friday - if sp' is trading in the 1660s.

However, anything higher than 15 looks really difficult.
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more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

Many bears will no doubt be very frustrated with the latter day recovery, but the bigger trend now appears clear, with a high at sp'1709. The sp' closed just 0.4% lower @ 1690. Near term outlook is for a continued bounce into Thursday, with first key downside target in the 1660/50 zone.


sp'60min

Summary

Indeed, many out there will be somewhat annoyed with the latter day recovery (as we've seen so many hundreds of times), but today was arguably important in that the mid-term picture is highly suggestive a top is in.

I don't expect 1709 to be taken out tomorrow..or indeed for another 2-3 months.

*I am seeking an index short in the sp'1700/05 area tomorrow..after the morning QE of $3bn is out of the way.
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the usual bits and pieces across the evening :)

3pm update - interesting closing hour

The market is holding moderate declines, but certainly nothing for the bears to get overly excited about. There is underlying slight upward pressure into the close, bulls should aim for a close above the hourly 10MA of sp'1692.


sp'60min

Summary

Best guess, slight upside into the close, with follow through early tomorrow.

It will be difficult for the bulls to sustain any price action >1700 though.
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*earnings at the close: TSLA...a stock surrounded in almost as much hysteria as FB.

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3.05pm.. sp'1692...bulls about to clear the hourly 10MA...and spiking it into the close.

Prepare for the whining and complaints on Zerohedge. ;)