Volatility slips into the weekend

With the indexes rallying (rather strongly) from morning lows, the VIX failed to hold minor gains of 5%, and closed -1.9% @ 12.72. Across the week, the VIX gained 1.4%. If sp'1700s, then VIX looks set for the 11s (briefly), before the next surge in Aug/September.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

For the equity bears out there, the VIX hourly and daily charts tell the story of failed hopes.

Once again, despite the VIX declining, the underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle ticked higher for a fourth consecutive day, and is now just 3-4 days away from breaking to into positive territory.

*best guess is that the current equity up wave from sp'1560 will complete by the FOMC of next Wednesday. From there, VIX should first make a play for a few daily closes in the 15/16s.

The big question is whether VIX can even break 20 in the next equity multi-week down cycle. I'm guessing it will, but only the low 20s seem viable.

more later..on those resilient indexes

Closing Brief

Another day of failure for the bears, where the main indexes saw moderate declines in late morning, only to rally into the weekend. Most indexes closed effectively flat/moderately higher. The sp' close of 1691 was a real victory to the bulls, and opens up the 1710/20s next week.


sp'60min

Summary

*the close of 1691 breaks the B' have high, and arguably confirms the wave'4 ABC.
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For the bears, another deeply annoying and frustrating week, not least todays price action.

As I feared in late morning, with the underlying MACD cycle already very low, the bulls were always going to have a good chance at pushing things higher.
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Its been a rough week for many, not least yours truly. I will hope the mid-term wave count is broadly correct, and that we will have downside back into the mid 1500s by mid September.

Have a good weekend
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*next main post, late Saturday, on the US weekly index cycles

3pm update - climbing into the weekend

The main indexes are battling higher for the fourth consecutive hour, and the morning low of sp'1676 is looking a fair way down. Bulls should be content with any close >1685, which still opens the door to 1710/20s next week.


sp'60min

Summary

For the bears..a frustrating end to the week.

My best guess remains..a small sub'5 next week..and that will complete the past 5 weeks of utter nonsense.

As many are starting to project, Aug/September could be pretty volatile, although VIX 30s still seem almost completely out of the range of possiblities..

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Not the best day for EXPE, after somewhat poor earnings.

If the main market tumbled back into the mid sp'1550s by early September, it will be interesting to see how far EXPE can fall. Target zone would be somewhere 35-30.