Volatility...flat

Whilst the main indexes again closed moderately higher, the VIX was battling to hold the 13s. However, with poor earnings from GOOG and MSFT, the VIX battled upward in the brief 15mins of AH action, and closed effectively flat @ 13.77


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Daily charts are pretty clear, despite the occasional hollow red (reversal candle), the broad trend is for lower volatility.

Equity bears should be seeking a daily close above the declining 10MA - currently in the low 14s.

Lower bollinger on the daily is now 11.76, and if the sp' is trading in the 1740/60s by early August, VIX 11s look viable.
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Underlying MACD cycle ticked higher for a sixth consecutive day. For the bears, that is arguably the only early warning sign out there right now.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

All of the main indexes closed with moderate gains, with the Dow, Sp'500, and R2K having broken new historic highs earlier in the day. Underlying pressure is strongly to the upside, and it remains a fearless market with VIX in the lowly 13s.


sp'60min

Summary

So...historic new highs for the two big headline indexes (Dow, SP), and the bulls remain in total control.

As have been the case since the 1560 low of June'24, the intra-day down cycles are very small, and the market is being bought on every micro-fall.

Best guess...we max out within the next few weeks..somewhere in the mid 1700s.

What will be important to look for, will be a break of the very obvious channel.
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more later..on the VIX

3pm update - closing hour melt

The main indexes are strong, and look set for higher levels in the very near term, with sp'1700s. WTIC Oil remains particularly powerful, now in the $108s, and set for a test of the key $110s. Bears have nothing to look forward to..for at 'some days'.


sp'60min

Summary

Looks like a baby bull flag on the hourly charts. No reason why sp'1700s won't be hit tomorrow, even though its opex.

*the more I look at the hourly charts, the more I think we are still in a sub'3. If the 1740/60s are going to be hit...bulls need this sub'3 to at least hit 1720s.

Regardless, the broad upward channel is holding..and only a maniac would be building short-positions right now.


3.48pm.. sp'1687 is holding VERY well..and a new historic close looks likely.

back at the close.