VIX trying to level out

With the sp'500 so far unable to break/hold above the key 50 day MA of 1624, the VIX daily trends are starting to suggest a possible turn/levelling phase. The VIX closed +0.4% @ 16.44. Daily MACD cycle is still ticking lower, but a clear turn now looks viable by late Friday.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to say, VIX 20s still look a long way up, and don't appear viable until next week...if at all this month.
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Equity bears should be desperate to see the sp' put in a daily close <1600, with the VIX back in the 18/19s. Right now, that seems the 'best bear case' by the Friday close.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The second consecutive day where the market made a serious attempt to break/hold above the important 50 day MA (sp'1624), but failed. A series of news stories helped pressure the market lower across the afternoon, and the daily index/VIX trends are appearing to turn.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

For the bears, the phrase 'at least we didn't close in the mid 1620s' comes to mind.

The largely flat close should be seen as a start, and is certainly not any kind of confirmation of a trend change.

Bears unquestionably need a daily close <1600, and even then, the bigger weekly charts won't be fully on track until we're persistently trading in the 1570s..or lower.
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Wednesday has very significant QE, and bears will likely struggle to prevent a third challenge of the 50 day MA.

more later..on the VIX

3pm update - daily trends starting to turn

With a series of negative stories piling up, the market is under increasing pressure. The repeated failure to clear the 50 day MA is posing a real problem for the bull maniacs, and with the break <sp'1610, the daily equity/VIX trends are starting to turn.


sp'daily5

vix'daily3

Summary

So....with the failure to keep pushing higher, the bulls are surprisingly already in danger of losing the big sp'1600 level.

I don't expect a daily close <1600, but it sure now looks viable early tomorrow, although there is that huge QE-pomo to be cautious about.
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Oil..almost breaking $100...bullish economy?


3.24pm  Queen cheerleader on clown TV  '..we're off the lows'. 

3.34pm.. sp'1608...hmm,  a shame we're not getting a close <1600, but an overnight futures gap down will easily do it.

1590s should offer 1570s by Friday, but that really is 'best bear case'.