Volatility starting to build

With the indexes failing to be inspired by the FOMC, the VIX held moderate gains into the close, +7.2% @ 14.49. The VIX daily chart is suggesting a new up cycle is now underway, first soft target is VIX 16/17, but more importantly, the VIX 20 threshold is the real bear prize.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

So, we just about hit my VIX closing target of 14.50. This should open the door to hitting 16/17s by the Friday close. However, VIX could - in theory at least, go a lot higher than that.

As we saw just a few weeks ago, the VIX can surge into the high teens in just a few hours. As many bears have been wondering for some months, when will the VIX break back into the 20s? It could come a lot sooner than many are considering.


Best 'reasonable' case for late Friday is sp'1550s, with VIX 17/18s.

However, if market gets rattled and upset by further lousy jobs data on Friday, I think there is a 'small' chance of sp'1540s, which would potentially offer VIX 19/21.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes all closed lower, lead by the Transports and Rus'2000, which both fell by around 2.3%. The sp' decline of 0.9% was 'interesting', but bears clearly to push a bit lower before there can be any confidence. VIX spiked a little into the close, into the 14.50s


sp'60min

Summary

With the FOMC out of the way, things just got a lot simpler for those in bear land.

First target is a daily close <1570, and that will open up a challenge of the 1536 low from a few weeks ago.

more later....

3pm update - weakness into the close?

With the FOMC press release out of the way, things are a little easier for the bears. The daily index charts are rolling over, lead by the Trans & R2K. There is serious weakness in the metals/oil market, and if the VIX can get a close >14.50...it bodes well for Thur/Friday.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

So far.. VIX just isn't showing any power. For me, 14.50 would be enough to clarify things.
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Last Fridays low of sp'1577 is now the next soft target, with the 1560s making it rather decisive.

I realise, many out there think we'll merely see another bounce from the 1570s. 

Lets see how we close!


3.10pm....they are battling it out now. market could close at new lows. look to the VIX ! We're going to need at least the 14.60s for any last hour major sell off.

FB is weak...earnings at the close (I think)

..rats starting to jump....VIX making a play at a new high
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3.39pm looks okay for the bears into the close..and across into Friday.