Volatility knocked lower into the close

A somewhat dubious end to the day in VIX land. For the fifth consecutive day, the VIX fell lower across the last few minutes of the trading day, and closed -1% @ 12.24  Near term trend looks like a mid-term floor in the 12.25/11.75 zone will hold.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

The VIX broke out of the 4 day down channel earlier today, but closed (somewhat surprisingly) in the red.

Although, it should be noted the closing action was VERY suspicious. This was the fifth day where the VIX was whacked lower in the closing minutes. Today was especially the case, where the VIX was flipped from +1%..to -1% in a matter of a few minutes.
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Today was day'4 down, and clearly, there is STILL no turn/levelling phase. Yet, the Daily lower bollinger band is very close @ 11.41..and that is itself rising.

The VIX might see a brief Friday spike lower - and then a major intra-day/morning to the upside.

Regardless of tomorrow, the VIX is historically cheap insurance at these levels, and I'd have to expect a move into the 15/16s before this month is done. Whether we can break into the 20s this May.. that is the ultimate question.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The market closed somewhat mixed. The transports closed slightly red, and its close companion - the Rus'2000, closed somewhat weak. The headline Dow & Sp' indexes managed moderate gains. The question now stands...was 1597.35 the high of this cycle?


IWM'60min

sp'60min

Trans'60min

Summary

First, note the Transports have pretty clearly broken the upward channel....with the R2K set to follow it tomorrow.

The big headline indexes though, that's another matter, and they remain extremely resilient.

It should be noted that the recent 4 day surge has been associated with a decline in the USD. If the Dollar starts to rally next week, that will be a major problem for equities, but especially Oil and the precious metals.

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*The VIX does look like its floored in the low 12s, and the bears should be seeking a Friday close in the 13s

3pm update - Transports and R2K...weak

Whilst the headline indexes hold moderate gains, the Transports and R2K are now moderately bearish on the hourly cycle. There should be at least some weakness into the close, and most of Friday morning. VIX is trying to build on the current fractional gains.


Trans'60min

R2K, 60min

VIX'60min

Summary

So far then, Transports is the first index to break the rising channel that began last Friday morning. R2K looks set to follow early tomorrow.

Whether the headline indexes will continue to ignore - what ARE the two market leaders, is to be seen.

For those still bearish...a short-stop at the 1598 level is pretty obvious.
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updates into the close...

 *I will hold Oil (short) overnight..seeking an exit in the 32.70s...tomorrow.

Indexes want to rally still, but...so far.. that 1597 high..holding.

3.25pm...Sp'500...a choppy top on the hourly..its a viable short-trade, with stop @ 1597/98.

Oil looks weak into the close, and for me, that at least takes the edge off what has been a difficult few days.

One thing that does seem clear, IWM is probably a better index short than the SP', the latter of which is possibly more prone to POMO/media hysteria, ..maybe.
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3.35pm... Sp'500, its certainly due a down cycle tomorrow, but its going to be tough to get a weekly close <1580, which remains something I will be focused on.

back at the close