Volatility slips lower yet again

With the sp'500 breaking into the historic territory of the 1580s, the VIX naturally was pressured lower. The VIX closed -3.7% @ 12.36. Near term trend looks weak, and there is a minor gap in the mid 11s that might yet get filled.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

The VIX briefly went fractionally green a few times, but was generally -2% across most of the day..and this is clearly not surprising considering the ramp in the main indexes.

Near term, we do have a small gap in the 11s that might get filled before the next up cycle (thanks to poster roxie' for the reminder).
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Lower bollinger on the daily is 11.33..and bears should perhaps look for a reversal candle somewhere in the mid 11s in the coming few days.

What is most notable from the last few months on the VIX, the spike highs are getting ever lower.. 23 in late Dec, then 19, and most recently, the 15s.

It remains a fearless market...but it won't forever be so...even with the Fed out there.

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more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

Another day - which for the bears, was nothing less than a waking nightmare. The sp' decisively broke the Oct'2007 high of 1576, and closed comfortably in the upper 1580s. The daily charts are offering upside into the weekend. VIX tried to rally...but still closed in the 12s.


sp'60min

Summary

Today was a tough one. If you reflect back to how we opened Friday, and where we are now, from a mood of 'omg, the jobs number is dire!', to one where....I guess I should merely say.... 'normal service has resumed'.

After all, since when did the US economy need net job growth, when it has the Bernanke who will gladly print ALL the dollars necessary to fund the Federal Government?

Strange times, and one day...they will become legendary, and perhaps even mythical. The financial historians of the late 21st century will find it hard to imagine how we kept repeating the same bubble nonsense..over and over.
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As for the indexes, the hourly charts look insanely over-extended - moving from RSI 30 to 70 in just 4 days, but hey, the daily and the weekly charts are back to a bullish outlook.

more later..on the VIX - which remains one notable issue in that its not breaking new lows.

3pm update - closing hour to a rough day

With the sp'500 breaking through 1576, and comfortably holding the upper 1580s for some hours, regardless of how we close today, it was another rough day for the bears. Meanwhile, dollar holds moderate gains, VIX is still 2% lower, and the metals (esp' Gold) look weak.


sp'60min

vix'60min

USO, daily2

Summary

I think I speak for many, when I say that today felt like the market went parabolic. Its almost true, at least for the morning session.

That's the scary thing now, there is no ceiling any longer on the sp'500, its gone. The big 2007 top has been taken out, and bulls have infinite open air to the upside.

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*I'm going to refrain from meddling in the indexes for 'some time'. I'll certainly follow them, but for now, I'm reverting back to Oil and the metals (short side only).

I hold USO (short) overnight.
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The updated Fibonacci chart for the sp'...

There is a count on there still, but I'm really not sure about that anymore.

What is disturbing is that even 1500 now looks a long way down. Hell, we couldn't even break 1538 last Friday, how we gonna do it on the next cycle from yet another higher level?

UPDATE 3.20pm...

You can see the VIX is TRYING to coil back upward.

A close outside of that down channel in the 13s should be the aim for bears tomorrow. VIX 13s would still be a lousy way to close this week though. Until we're in the 16s, bears face a fearless market...lost in delusion.

3.40pm...Did you notice the miners, see GDX..almost -4%....headed for 25/20 across the months ahead..assuming the precious metals remain weak.

What a train wreck of the sector.

back at the close.