Volatility breaking higher

With the indexes showing some distinct weakness across the day, volatility is coming back to the market. The VIX closed 3.8% higher, to settle @ 16.56. A Friday close above 17.50 would be very significant.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily

Summary

Certainly, today's gains could be classed as 'barely moderate', but still, we're back in the mid 16s again, and we're less than 1.00pt away from a daily close in the mid 17s - which in my view, is the first key level to watch for tomorrow/Monday.

If we can get a close >17.50, that should mean an imminent move to 18/19. Whether we can then break the psychological 20 threshold, that is the great unknown.

I suppose if the indexes break below the 200 day MA @ sp'1387, then we have a chance at VIX 20+.

If there is one early Christmas present many bears would like, it is probably a VIX >20.

More later, on the indexes

Closing Brief

The market saw declines across all indexes, in what may be a post FOMC depressionary reaction. The closing hour saw a little spike higher due to news that there will be yet another meeting at the whitehouse later today.  Despite the bounce, the close <sp'1420 was a very good sign.


Dow'60min

Sp'60min

Trans'60min

Summary

The bears should be pleased with how today turned out. With the break below sp'1420, it has taken us comfortably away from the FOMC spike high of 1438.

Those hoping to surpass the mid-Sept FOMC high of 1474 now have a real problem.
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Many secondary factors are all turning back towards the bears, VIX, $, and the bigger weekly index cycles showing a failed/spike high.

More later

3pm update - closing hour depression?

Mr Market is in a bad mood. Its slipped considerably away from the sp'1438 peak. With the VIX and Mr $ rising, the downward pressure on the main market is likely to continue into tomorrow. Taking out the recent 1398 low will be the first warning of 'serious trouble'.


sp'daily5

sp'weekly

Summary

We're seeing a nice failure/topping spike on the weekly charts.

The daily charts are all starting to show breaks on the ascending channel.

Baring some stupid bounce into the close, today has gone VERY well for the bears.
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I remain short (yes, still), seeking a first exit around 1395, although my target low for next week is around 1380.

UPDATE 3.22pm We had a break earlier below the 10MA on the daily, thats strike'1 for the market.

sp'daily5f

back after the close