Volatility set to spike

With the main equity indexes continuing to look weak, it would seem the VIX is still long overdue a considerable spike higher. A move to at least 20/21 seems likely, but its possible we may briefly see 24/26, before the indexes see a bounce back to sp'1400.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily

VIX'weekly

Summary

It was something of a particularly strange week in VIX land. Thursday was an especially weird day, and despite the indexes closing lower by 1%, the VIX still closed -3%. I really don't know what to make of it.
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Regardless, ALL three VIX cycles look very bullish for early next week. The hourly cycle is very close to breaking the key 20 threshold. A daily close >20 would be really bearish for the indexes, and open up a brief spike to the mid 20s.

All things considered, I just can't see VIX in the 30s for at least a few more weeks..and that's still assuming the bears can put a lid on the next index up cycle.

My best guess...if sp'1345/40..next week, then VIX 24.

more later...

Closing Brief

Mr Market rallied almost 1% in the morning session, but even the President failed to inspire the algo-bots, and we saw some latter day weakness. The close under sp'1380 was an especially bearish aspect to end the week on. The VIX managed a fractional green close, confirming the slight weakness this afternoon.


sp'60min

Summary

A bit of a choppy end to the day...but we closed under the big daily 200 MA on the sp
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*I am short, holding across the weekend, and seeking sp'1345/40...in the first half of next week, certainly before opex.

Have a good weekend

3pm update - shorting into the close

Mr Market is again trying to rally, but even the President failed to inspire the market earlier.


sp'15min

Summary

Standing by to short into the close...seeking sp'1345/40.

Threshold to 'chase it lower' 1381/80

updates..coming ;)

UPDATE 3.07pm

Am short...holding across the weekend...seeking sp'1345/40

back after the close.