Volatility close to exploding

Whilst the main indexes saw one of their biggest closing declines in a year, the VIX did close higher, but somewhat less than what would normally be expected. The VIX rallied in the brief AH trading period,  closing  8.5% higher, @ 19.08


VIX'60min

VIX'daily

VIX'weekly

Summary

First VIX target remains a daily close of 20/21.
Secondary..24/26.

Any intra-day explosion >26, and there is imminent likelihood of a flash crash to at least sp'1345.
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*I re-shorted at 2pm today, holding overnight, seeking sp'1380, with VIX 20/21 as my next exit target.

However, primary near term (1-2 week target) is sp'1345, with VIX 24/26.

Closing Brief

The main indexes closed lower by around 2% - with an especially weak closing hour, making it the biggest closing decline in many months. The VIX closed only 7% higher, and remains below the important 20 threshold. Near term, it would be very surprising if we don't see a continuation to at least sp'1380, if not 1345.


dow'60min

sp'60min

Summary

*looks like the mini bear-flag snapped lower in the last 10mins. A bonus for the bears.
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Today's price action confirmed a lot of things. We saw the bear flag - as seen on the daily charts confirmed, we saw a break of the key cycle low @ 1397, and we even briefly moved into the 1380s.

I think the size of the declines has surprised many, and there will doubtless be many wondering into this weekend whether the QE spike high of 1474 really was the top on a longer term perspective.
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We have (yet another) Greek austerity vote later, that is around 6pm EST - just in time for when the futures wheel spins up.

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much more later, especially focusing on those bigger cycles, which are showing where we are headed.

3pm update - closing hour collapse?

We have seen a very reasonable sp 14pt intra-day bounce, and that was very likely it for the bulls. Next downside target is 1380..where we have the big 200day MA. It is important to recognise that most other indexes have already broken the 200day.

It seems VERY unlikely the sp' can hold 1380 tomorrow.

Primary target..within days...sp'1345


sp'daily5

Summary

I am short, and holding overnight, seeking 1380 early tomorrow morning, if not considerably lower, with VIX 20/21

*I hope the rest of you are having as good a day too.

back after the close

UPDATE 3.20pm

VIX is battling back..a close in the 19s would be useful for the bears.