Wednesday 7 November 2012

Closing Brief

The main indexes closed lower by around 2% - with an especially weak closing hour, making it the biggest closing decline in many months. The VIX closed only 7% higher, and remains below the important 20 threshold. Near term, it would be very surprising if we don't see a continuation to at least sp'1380, if not 1345.


dow'60min



sp'60min



Summary

*looks like the mini bear-flag snapped lower in the last 10mins. A bonus for the bears.
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Today's price action confirmed a lot of things. We saw the bear flag - as seen on the daily charts confirmed, we saw a break of the key cycle low @ 1397, and we even briefly moved into the 1380s.

I think the size of the declines has surprised many, and there will doubtless be many wondering into this weekend whether the QE spike high of 1474 really was the top on a longer term perspective.
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We have (yet another) Greek austerity vote later, that is around 6pm EST - just in time for when the futures wheel spins up.

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much more later, especially focusing on those bigger cycles, which are showing where we are headed.